This forum is archived and no longer active. You can visit us in our Discord Server here!

Topic: the evgeni malkin conundrum

1

once again tonight (3/27/18) has malkin projected at over 7.5 (7.57) on draftkings in hockey.
the last 8 times that has happened, he has never exceeded his projection and usually can't perform to those overly lofty projections
last 8 projections listed over 7.5 came out to 8.24 as an average.
those 8 nights finished up with scores averaging 3.88 combined.
even with his big salary, the lineups keep having him put in there with those big projections.
time for a tweeking of the outlier in the algorithm guys.
hockey season is about over, but capping a player at X.X times his rolling average could be used as a safeguard.
at a 4.3 average, maybe a 1.5 times average cap equalling 6.45 would be more in line.
just a thought.

I don't have an exact answer for you, but I suspect had Malkin gone for a big night you wouldn't have posted. My point being that hindsight is 20/20, so it's easy to look now and say the projection was wrong. This may be something we look at for next years NHL projections, but as always, we STRONGLY encourage our users to adjust projections themselves, and if you did not believe he would score the projection then you definitely should have lowered it.

yeah, the game was about halfway thru when i posted and NOT after the game ended so shame on me for not posting before 7pm because the point was to see if a cap of maybe 1.5 times the rolling average could be set as a guideline.
quite often in the time crunch, i become a situational lineup builder instead of projection based.
example... i'll take 3 top players and the goalie from team A and then set 2 of 3 in the other 2 teams i think will score big regardless of me adjusting any projections.
i kept finding over and over that malkin would get into those crunched lineups along with my 3 stars from team A, so i ended up with many 2,500 to 3,000 salaried players in the other slots because malkin sucks up the salary cap.

it kinda sounds like you think i only wanna bash you guys with this and the thing i brought up about the time of player injuries getting posted in hockey from a week or so ago.
however, i loved this...
https://www.fantasycruncher.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=3026
this...
https://www.fantasycruncher.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=2764
this...
https://www.fantasycruncher.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=2578
this...
https://www.fantasycruncher.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=2111
this...
https://www.fantasycruncher.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=1844
this...
https://www.fantasycruncher.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=1703
and this...
https://www.fantasycruncher.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=1360

so i'm still 99.9 percent happy even though it may not sound like it.