I think you're looking at it the wrong way. Instead, look at how many "likely" good points are out there in a given day. While 300+ is possible in any night, some nights this might because a guy like Kenneth Faried just blows-up, without warning and without any way to predict it. Personally, some nights I've won 100 50/50 games with a score of 265 and other nights I get blown out of the water at 300. Remember, you don't get paid to get a certain number of points, you get paid to get more points than a certain number of your competitors, depending on game type.

An easy (but excellent) barometer for any given day in my "humble" estimation is to run FC later in the day (before games start, but after some of the updates for during-day scratches, etc. ... maybe after 4pm ET) without ANY filters and see what the Number 1 score is. Generally, that's an excellent estimation of what a good score for the night will be. Then fine tune FC's projections using your own ideas, keeping in mind you're trying to reach a score around the first score you ran without any filters or adjustments.

Simple and Quick.

I will say this has worked well for me, though some of the other "smarter" users out there may have a better strategy.

OR... you could just add 30 points to all the FC projected player scores using their editing tool and re-run and you will certainly be over 300 every day!! :)