usood89 wrote
Wow! How the hell did you put that one together?? Help a brother out!i usually want players from a team i think will win and preferably teams playing at home.
that way the official scorer is on your side, and maybe an extra blocked shot or an assist that really wasn't an assist falls in your lap.
i really loved nashville players, ny rangers, and penguins that night.
the bad thing about nashville was hellebuyck was in net against them so i only used colin wilson on defense because he averages 2.6 points at home and for a $3,300 player, that's good value. he can pop off a 5 pt or 8 pt night every so often too.
i took 4 rangers players and 3 penguins for my other skaters because i loved those teams to win.
i have a spreadsheet on who i think will win the game and how many goals will be scored for every team and it's rated by home and away as well as schedule strength.
i see lots of chat room boards talking about using vegas lines and totals. yeah, go ahead and do that and see how crushed your bankroll gets.
vegas whacks the favorites on their lines, but that doesn't mean they're the best team.
i'm from tampa bay. vegas has them over-rated this season because they played for the stanley cup last year.
against bad teams (based on my ratings) they are only scoring about 2.2 goals a game at home.
do you want to use players from a team like that even if vegas says the're favored at -180 to win? not me!!
did you know that dallas at home averages 4.15 goals a game against bad teams (based on my ratings) and against good teams they average only 3.14 goals a game.
in november, there were 195 games, so that's 390 teams. 109 teams scored 4 goals or more in a game. (27.9 percent)
wouldn't you like to have players on teams scoring 4 goals a game? i would and i do.
i played dubnyk as my goalie for minnesota because he's way better than his won-loss record shows. minnesota stinks in the 3 on 3 overtime games and that's where his losses are adding up. against columbus who is horrible, i figured it'd never get to overtime.
so to recap, it's more about teams to narrow it down and then plug in the players from there based on salary and position.
i know that makes it sound easy, but a ton of research has led me to be able to pop out a few lineups in 20 minutes each day based on teams.
if it was based on players, the research would take hours each day and who wants to do that with a very random sport.
don't think hockey isn't mostly random, google "poisson distribution for hockey goals"
or click here and read this >>>
http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Poisson_Toolbox.pdf