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Topic: Fantasy Cruncher 1st Half NBA Breakdown

1 Topic by CeeGee
Below are some stats I've been tracking on FC for Fanduel.

I have more stats from Draftkings which I'll post later, but for now, I'm going to post some of these results for Fanduel NBA only.

Lineup Settings / Info
**data gathered since January 8th, sans a few 2 game slates here and there**
1. Default (no locks)
2. Only Top 5 lineups tracked
3. All "cash lines" were used from $25 FD Slam
4. All lineups were used with the most recent update as close to lock as possible

FD $25 Slam
Average Winning Score = 338.6
Average Min Cash Score = 273.44

Here are the FC Results

FC Pro
- 155 lineups (roughly $4,000 in buy ins)
- 43 lineups cahsed
- 27.74%
- Average Score = 259.1
- ST Dev = 30.31
- High LU = 331.3 (LU#2 on 1/23/15 (248th) for $150 payout)
- Low LU = 189.6
- (-)$1,360 to date

FC Ceiling
- 155 lineups
- 39 lineups cashed
- 25.16%
- Average Score = 258.48
- ST Dev = 33.11
- High LU = 341.2 (LU#3 on 1/25/15 payout of $75)
- Low LU = 178.3
- (-)$945 to date

FC Floor
-155 lineups
- 36 lineups cashed
- 23.23%
- Average SCore = 256.37
- ST Dev = 29.97
- High LU = 340.5
- Low LU = 191.8
- (-)$1,865 to date

Overall, if someone blindly played the Top 5 from the Pro, Ceiling, Floor each night they would be (-)$4,170 to date

Does this mean the FC Tool is bad? By all means no... The reason for me posting this info is so that you all know you can't simply plug in these lineups and win consistently... You must use your own intuition and make adjustments on the fly, especially in the NBA where late news is a nightly staple...

I've been tracking other lineup building techniques, using the same Pro, Ceiling, and Floor lineups with my own locks (no projection adjustments)... I am not going to post those results, but, I will tell you over the same period of time, Since Jan 8th, those lineups are turning out much better... I don't want to go into extreme detail about my system, but I'll give you some of the averages.

(MY) FC Pro
-155 lineups
- 57lineups cashed
- 36.77%
- Average Score = 263.91
- ST Dev = 32.83
- High LU = 335
- Low LU = 188.7
- (+)$7,780 to date

All 3 lineups are averaging over 260 (263.91, 261.46, 262.86) and overall we are at $8,300 profit just on Slam Entries. Also, we're sitting at profits of $641 in the $2(5x) games using the same 5 lineups each day.

I'm not posting these numbers to get a rise out of people. Don't take this the wrong way, I just want people to understand how good this tool is with your own insight and intuition added into it.

Keep up the great work FC Staff! This is by far the best DFS tool on the market.

Regards
Cg
While this is interesting, I want to point out, that the slam pays out the top ~18% of the entries. with min cashes around 2-2.5x. This is horrible for ROI. If you did this for quintuple ups which also pay out the top 18% with an even 5x pay out. (If this data is correct) you would actually be winning money. Because if you're winning 23-28% of the time playing a game that is paying you 5x, you break even at 20% winrate and end up ahead when you win more than that. You end up losing money playing the top heavy gpps because you don't break even with quintuple up money unless your lineup falls in the top 2% or so.

THAT BEING SAID! I still do not recommend doing this because this is still considered a small sample size and we will not be responsible for what happens to your bankroll if you play blindly on our default lineups.
What's amazing to me is that the difference between -$4170 and +$7780 is fewer than 6 fantasy points on average (263.91-257.98=5.93).
@taicheeze - you are correct without a doubt. You can't just "plug and play" and expect to win long term. Also agree with what you said about the Slam, only paying out Top 18% is tough and then only paying 2.5x your buy in is really tough. Looking at my numbers, someone doing this would have been broke in a few weeks if they only entered these lineups into the slam.

The $2 quintuple up would be +$641 over this same time span (if we can assume the same lineups that cashed the slam, actually cashed in the quintuple up *which isn't always the case* )

Just wanted to post these numbers and show people how good this tool is if you can figure out a system you like.

Keep up the great work fellas
-Cg
Interesting info, thank you for posting.

I have found FC to be of great help using "Base" players and adjusting. Also, it seems to do really well when picking a dark horse or two. (sometimes it inserts a player hours before I even know if they will start...somehow knowing the injury is coming to the starter)

either way, I am looking forward to full test in MLB.