This forum is archived and no longer active. You can visit us in our Discord Server here!

Topic: NBA

1

Gentlemen,

I have read up and done plenty of digging around in the forums.

First, I am typically a single entry GPP NBA guy on DK for the purpose of this thread. I am using this as a tool to better myself in NBA. I love NBA!

I have seen that a lot of players use various projections sites and average them out. Is this a tried and true strategy for using FC to its optimal capacity?

What sites are you guys using and are they reliable? If so, who has the best projections?

How does the thumbs up, thumbs down weigh on lineup construction?

How come FC doesnt update more frequently especially as a paid tool?

Does anyone have lineup construction advice?

When constructing lineups how do you guys find your "core, or value?" I typically start by grazing over each position and finding which is weak for the slate and then find out if I should be paying up there or not and then trying to find value by monitoring Twitter and news throughout the day.

Here's to a New Year and hoping that this thread invokes some to chime in and provide meaningful insight to help out myself and those whom read it. FYI, I have taken down 2 GPP's in MLB so I do have plenty to add as far as comprehensive input. Just fairly new to NBA and trying to get better.

I figured I would follow up as since I wrote this more things have come to light. First thing I'd like to do is evaluate my lineup from last night.

After reading around in here I tried to use multiple projection systems (Basketball Monster, RG, Roto QL, and FC) and average them out. The first thing that I did was tried to come up with an aggregate number for Westy with KD being out. KD would have been the first person in my LU as SF was glaringly weak and I didnt like anything down low. This would all change dramatically.

Some notables:

Westy 5.7X
Rondo 4.5X
IT2 5.1X
Rubio 5.2X
Kemba 4.7X
Ish 4.5X
Larkin 5X
Mills 6X

Klay 4.6X
Wiggins 4.9X
Wade 4.6X
Hood 4.8X
KCP 4.9X
Turner 5.3X
Oladipo 4.5X

Those are just PG and SG, but just to give an idea of what I computed. Once Payton was ruled out I immediately re-evaluated Oladipo as he became my top SG with the highest ceiling. RG had this game with a low total and overall bad defensive MU. I projected Oladipo at 32+ minutes with 33 FPS and a ceiling of 40+. Next play was Monta Ellis with the news of Hill being out. I projected him, but actually gave the bump to PG13. This again was a stay away game from the "experts" at RG my daily slate read. I actually ended up having 4 SG as my top value plays, but was saying to myself "there is no way I can play 3 SG!" It would have been a decent play. I ended up rostering Turner, Hood and Dipo.

Suffice to say, all the experts were all in on the OKC/SAC game with most focus on OKC and their low-end options (Roberson, Waiters, Morrow, and Payne) as salary savers in order to stud up. Every day I see posts on Twitter thanking RG and their "experts" for helping them cash in GPPs. Sorry, but I have been a part of the RG community for a very long time and even wrote for them, but I have never turned a profit on their analysis. In fact, I have been swayed off players more times than not from their writings. This isnt intended to be a bashing session on RG as they are my go to source for material.

Some additional notes from game research:

Min projected 105 points
Boost all MIN
PHI projected 99 points +6
TOR low total and tough MU
Pacers have worst MU on slate
Pacers proj low total
MIA projected +2 above avg
BOS projected 105
BRK proj 98 points +2
ORL low total and slow pace
ORL proj 97 points -3
DET proj 100 points
SAC/OKC proj very high total
OKC proj 111
No Parker boost Kawhi
UT proj 99 points +3

These notes had me avoiding basically every game that had significant scoring. This happens on a daily basis.

I spent so much time researching yesterday that I actually had one of my worst performing lineups since I can remember.

Additional findings and actual results:

Cousins proj 43 @4.2X actual 64
Rondo proj 37 @4.5X actual 63
Dray proj 44 @4.4X actual 57
ZBo proj 25 @4.2X actual 55
Bosh proj 35 @4.6X actual 53 ( I was on him with Whiteside news)
Thad proj 35 @4.9X actual 52
Lowry proj 39 @4.7X actual 52 (this was deemed a bad MU and stay away game) He was my fav PG heading into the slate
Westy proj 61 @5.7X actual 50
PG proj 40 @4.5X actual 50
Ish proj 31 @ 4.5X actual 48
Ibaka proj 33 @5.2X actual 47 (notes all stated that Ibaka doesnt improve with KD off court)

The projections actually round out OK for cash game purposes in some instances. Any thoughts?