DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Kwik Trip 250 – July 3, 2022
Chase Elliott – DK: $11,100 | FD: $14,000 – Starting 1st
The Cup Series takes on Road America in Elkhart Wisconsin for a track that is over four miles in length. We are looking at just 62 laps on Sunday, so dominator points like fast laps and laps led aren’t going to factor a ton into the final equation. That being said, with a limited amount, they can be what pushes us over the top. Ultimately, we are going to be focusing on differential for this race as while some road courses hold a stigma of not being able to pass, Road America presents its opportunities. Last year this race was won by no other than Chase Elliott. Elliott has already established himself as the best road course driver in the series with seven wins in across his career. In two road course races this year Elliott has netted two top-8 finishes. This is also a track Elliott himself said he was excited to get back to – which I would be too as a defending champion. The simple truth here is Elliott dominates road courses and starts from the front. While Dominator points are limited, the best way to get them in a 62-lap race is to start from the front. With some guys holding the front would be a concern, but with Elliott, I don’t think that is one we will have as he shouldn’t have issues with Briscoe off of the start. That is not saying that Briscoe is not a threat in this race – he posted a great practice time and qualifying time and at his price is also strongly in consideration here.
Due to Elliott’s road course pedigree, I do expect him to be very high owned on Sunday. The high-priced options here are Larson, Elliott, and Busch, but Busch will start from the back and be scored from 13th so there is some risk there. Ross Chastain has turned in two very strong road courses races this season, while Martin Truex has a strong 4-year average on road courses. Anyone listed in the High Tier of the Cheat Sheet below can be considered pivot options off of Elliott or complementary pieces to him.
Ricky Stenhouse – DK: $6,900 | FD: $5,000 – Starting 33rd
As mentioned, the differential is going to be our focus today and while Stenhouse has the reputation of crashing out early, he has turned a new identity this year. While Stenhouse has never really been regarded as a great road course racer, he also hasn’t been horrible. Last year at Road America, Stenhouse started 38th and finished 12th. He has had some varying results at Watkin’s Glen, but 20th or better finishes in each of his last four races there. Some issues at Sonoma, but really, it is hard to compare a less than 2-mile road course to an over 4-mile. This is the longest track on the circuit so it is unique in its own right. Over his career, Stenhouse has an average career finish on road courses of 23rd and he has seven top-20 finishes over his last nine races in general. So we get good form Stenhouse, on a track he looked good at last year and despite qualifying 33rd, posted practice times better than that. When it comes to his practice time he posted the 27th fastest, but the difference between 14th and 27th was fractions. There is still risk here as it is still Ricky Stenhouse, but for where he is started vs. the price, the ceiling we get here is pretty high. If Stenhouse can duplicate last year’s performance, then he will be in the optimal lineup.
|High||Kyle Larson (11.4k / 36.87) (13.5k / 36.87)|
|Chase Elliott (11.1k / 51.62) (14k / 51.62)|
|Ross Chastain (10.3k / 40.23) (13k / 40.23)|
|Martin Truex (9.6k / 47.52) (9.8k / 47.52)|
|Medium||Kurt Busch (8.7k / 44.96) (7.5k / 44.96)|
|Austin Cindric (8.5k / 30.90) (10.5k / 30.90)|
|Chase Briscoe (8.3k / 33.57) (7.8k / 33.57)|
|Kevin Harvick (8.1k / 53.36) (6.8k / 53.36)|
|Low||Daniel Suarez (7.7k / 25.99) (11.5k / 25.99)|
|Ricky Stenhouse (6.9k / 36.28) (5k / 36.28)|
|Chris Buescher (6.3k / 22.12) (7k / 22.12)|
|Justin Haley (5.9k / 21.61) (4.5k / 21.61)|