UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier MMA DFS Slate Analysis for DraftKings & FanDuel – July 2, 2022
International Fight Week is upon us with UFC 276 commencing Saturday night from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
This Pay-Per-View Card features not one but two title bouts in Adesanya vs. Cannonier as well as a trilogy fight between Alex Volkanovski and Max Holloway.
Happy Friday everybody! We are back to offer some insight and helpful nuggets of information for tomorrow nights 12 fight UFC Card! As I mentioned in the opening, this card features two 5 round title fights and they are carrying some serious ownership (more on this to come). Contests lock at 6pm with DraftKings featuring a large field “UFC 276 Special” contest with an 800K prize pool with 200K going to first!
Underdog to consider: Alex Pereira ($8,300 DraftKings, $15 FanDuel)
Alex Pereira is appealing to me for a few reasons. First you will notice that he is priced like the favorite in the fight due to the line movement throughout the week with Sean Strickland being a slight favorite depending on what book you play at, at the time of this writing. Pereira has serious striking skills. Israel Adesanya who is widely regarded as the best striker in the UFC has lost 2 kickboxing matches to Pereira the last one in which he was KO’d. With that being said this is an MMA fight not a kickboxing match. Will Sean Strickland actually opt to wrestle or will he stand toe to toe with Pereira and attempt to trade strikes? If the latter is the case I like Pereira to get a KO. Pereira also is carrying some of the highest “inside the distance” prop odds in his favor while landing somewhere in the middle of the pack with his projected ownership currently. I like the idea of “paying up to be contrarian” in a way here and filling out my lineups with Pereira as a key piece.
Favorite to consider: Andre Muniz ($9,200 DraftKings, $21 FanDuel)
Instead of highlighting one of the main event fighters I opted to lock in on Muniz here. Muniz is riding a 4 fight win streak going into this bout with Uriah Hall with the last 3 all ending in 1st round submissions wins. His opponent Hall is purely a striker with a limited ground game. Muniz could get there and outscore the main event fighters by a first round submission with a couple take downs or he could put up a big score in a decision with a plethora of takedowns. Hall still carries the possibility of landing that one shot that ends the fight, but Muniz appears to have a serious advantage on the ground heading into the bout. You get the best first round finishing odds and the 2nd biggest favorite on the slate while saving some ownership percentage points off the main event favorites.
Lineup construction to consider: Limit your championship bout fighter exposure.
With the exception of Jared Cannonier who is the lowest priced fighter on DraftKings three of the four fighters taking place in these championship fights are carrying a projected ownership level of 40% or higher. Even if you think you are getting “different” in rostering Max Holloway, while you are getting some salary relief he is still one of the top few projected fighters in terms of ownership. Much like last week (although it did not work out) I’m going back to the well with my lineup construction to consider. To get different in your lineups, instead of jamming in the two favorites in the main events you have 2 other really good options in Andre Muniz (highlighted above) as well as Sean O’Malley with both carrying some of the highest probabilities in terms of finishing their opponents in the first round. The other option in the 9k salary range you could plug in is Maycee Barber carrying an implied win probability of around 75% while being in the middle of the pack in terms of projected ownership.
That will do it! If anybody wants to chop it up about the slate tomorrow or has any questions check out the MMA Channel in the FantasyCruncher Discord