MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for June 22, 2022.
Today’s best MLB DFS pitching picks to help you win your contests on FanDuel & DraftKings.
The Wednesday evening slate brings us a smaller 9 game group to work with, and it’s quite an interesting group of arms taking the hill for their respective clubs.
MLB Weather Outlook
We have a couple potential issues here, with a decent chunk of rain expected in Baltimore and Pittsburgh tonight. Right now, Baltimore is expecting right around a 50% chance of rain at gametime, while Pittsburgh’s probability is sitting around 30%. Weather patterns are projected to worsen in Baltimore, leading me to believe that we’ll likely see a delay or rainout altogether here – but Pittsburgh’s forecast improves as the night wears on (from 27% at gametime and decreasing thereafter). I’d recommend steering clear of pitching in the WSN/BAL contest, and being a bit more timid of CHC/PIT exposure but not necessarily avoiding it altogether if you’re compelled with a key play there for whatever reason.
Vegas Odds & Insights
Highest Win Probabilities
Lowest Team Totals
- Kansas City (3.09 runs)
- Tampa Bay (3.33 runs)
- Oakland (3.65 runs)
Top Overall Plays – Main Slate
Shohei Ohtani – It’s hard to make an argument for anyone other than Ohtani here today, as he faces off with the Royals in a game where the RHP holds the highest win probability (70%) and lowest opponent total (3.1 runs). He’s been better than his surface stats indicate, holding a 3.45 SIERA in his last 4 starts vs an ERA of 4.09, while managing hard contact nicely (28%), too. This is the softer split for KCR as well, and with one of their best hitters likely sidelined (Salvador Perez), things only get a little tastier for the talented right. Look for a strong outing from him here today with a high floor/ceiling combo at a very fair salary.
Value Plays – Main Slate
George Kirby – I haven’t had too many chances to talk about Kirby in this column yet this year, but tonight is one of those days that I’d really like to ramp up exposure. On DraftKings, he’s a mere $6,600 which is utterly unfair against the lowly Athletics. They have a slate-low .272 wOBA split coming into this one, and with the way Kirby’s throwing the ball these days, he’s an easy guy to get excited about. In his last 5 starts, he’s holding a 9.6 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 3.02 SIERA and respectable raw stuff metrics (11% whiff, 32% chase). RHBs have been his kryptonite early on in his MLB career, but he could face up to 4 LHBs and none of the righty bats really concern me given the regulars all have wOBAs of basically .300 and below. Lock and load.
Other Pitchers to Consider – Main Slate
Michael Wacha – He’s a bit of a risk anytime taking the mound, as he’s one of those “feel” pitchers who often is able to outperform their sabermetrics. Case in point is his 4.13 SIERA in the last month of action, but a 2.83 ERA to offset it in the category that “actually matters”. He doesn’t strike a ton of guys out (just 6.0 K/9 in his last 5 starts), but he’s also barely walking anyone (0.9 per 9) and is generating chases at a solid clip. Detroit’s offense isn’t as bad as their year to date numbers indicate (.261 wOBA split vs RHP), especially with Javier Baez heating up and Riley Greene holding his own early on. I’m optimistic for Wacha’s sake given the salary here, but am not ready to declare an “all-in” position by any means.
Sonny Gray – He’s throwing the ball well right now after his IL bout, with a 2.89 SIERA in his last 18 innings. However, this is a matchup against the Guardians who are great at putting the ball in play vs RHP (just a 17% K% on the year to lead the slate). Gray is generally great at keeping the ball in the yard though, and holds a 60% win probability heading into this one. He’s equally effective against RHBs (.287 wOBA) as LHBs (.280 wOBA) dating back to the start of 2020, and is a fairly high floor play here tonight if you’re looking for a cash game play you can feel good about getting behind. Just be aware that the ceiling is relatively capped against an offense that won’t strike out very much.