UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett Saturday June 18, 2022.
This Father’s Day weekend brings us a 14 fight UFC Card filled with favorites galore as 10 fighters are -200 or higher to win their respective matchups.
Let’s jump in and take a holistic view of the slate in terms of ownership and lineup construction, as well as some fighters to consider when building out your lineups!
What’s up everybody? Happy Friday! While our normal UFC writer “Caveman” Rob is drinking fruity rum drinks on a sandy beach out of a curly pastel colored straw we are here holding down the fort here at FantasyCruncher. I’m going to take a little bit of a different approach and dive into the DFS slate in terms of pricing, lineup construction, and some fighters you may want to consider when building your lineups. I noted it in the header but this is an interesting slate to build lineups for when you consider the 8k salary range fighters on DraftKings being littered with high ownership and the highest “inside the distance” finishing probabilities. It makes sense why those fighters would carry the highest ownership as on such a large slate where you are going to have to identify the winning fighters, but also the ones that can put up a 100+ score. The easiest way for this to happen obviously is with the fight ending in a finish. On a 14 fight card we are most likely to see an optimal/winning lineup with a score of close to 700 fantasy points.
Underdog to consider: Joe Lauzon ($7,900 DraftKings, 14$ FanDuel) is notoriously known as a fast starter while the opposite rings true for Donald Cerrone. They are both established in the UFC fighting for nothing more than pride at this point with both approaching 40. Donald Cerrone has not won a fight in over 3 years, losing 5 of his last 6 matches. Some of them were against some stiff competition with fights against the likes of Justin Gaethje or Conor McGregor but the last 3 fights (2 losses, 1 draw) were not against world beaters by any imagination. Lauzon did score a knockout in the first round of his last fight but this was all the way back in 2019. Since then he has semi retired but choose to come back for this bout with Cowboy Cerrone. This is more of a fade of Cowboy than having faith in Lauzon. While Lauzon has spent the last 3 years training on his own terms Cowboy Cerrone has been getting beat down in the Octagon. He is regarded as a UFC legend and has much respect across the fight game, but father time is undefeated. That’s not to say he’s facing some a young, top contender either but on a card where options in the 7k range are not super appealing Lauzon saves you some salary and provides leverage on the field.
Favorite to consider: Cody Stamann ($9,500 DraftKings, 23$ FanDuel) How often do you see the highest favorite on the card by a large margin (-500) be the 11th most projected owned fighter? Not very often. Stamann priced at $9,500 does not figure to be as popular as he should do to DFS players flocking to the 8k range on this slate. I expect Stamann to take his opponent Eddie Wineland to TAKEDOWN city and utilize his far superior grappling. When you can get the 2nd highest projected fighter on the slate as somewhere between the 8th-11th most owned fighter depending on how ownership projections shake out in the end, that is something you should be considering pulling the trigger on.
Lineup construction to consider: Play two 9k fighters in your lineups and mix in 2 underdogs. Look, this card is filled with favorites priced higher than -200 with 10 total as of this writing. From a straight mathematic perspective it would not be surprising to see anywhere from three to four of these fighters lose outright. We have three of the top four projected fighters squarely in the middle of the pack in terms of ownership while carrying a great probability of winning their fight. Not only are you getting the higher raw projected fighters but you’re also getting them at an ownership discount. Rostering a couple of these underdogs allows you to get to these high priced as well as projected fighters while also getting some leverage across your lineups.
That will do it! If anybody wants to chop it up about the slate tomorrow or has any questions check out the MMA Channel in the FantasyCruncher Discord