DFS Analysis of UFC on ESPN 36: Blachowicz vs Rakic (May 14, 2022)

Top DFS Plays for UFC on ESPN 36: Blachowicz vs Rakic (5/14/22)

The UFC returns for more MMA action from The Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.


Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

ION CUTELABA (DK $8,900 / FD $19) – Both Cutelaba and his opponent, Ryan Spann, have had mixed results of late. Cutelaba is coming off of a decision win over Devin Clark in September of last year, while Spann lost by first-round submission to Anthony Smith on the same day. Spann has lost 2 of 3 with both losses coming in the first round. Cutelaba is 1-1-1 over his last 3 with his only loss over that span coming from Magomed Ankalaev. Current odds make Cutelaba the 4th biggest favorite of the night to win and the biggest favorite to score an early conclusion bonus. Yet he is 4th in salary on DraftKings and tied for 6th on Fanduel. Cutelaba presents great scoring potential at a salary that will still allow for plenty of quality fighters on the same lineup.

(At the time of this writing, Ion Cutelaba is -226 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 70.09 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 


Fighter with the Best Value

ANDREA LEE (DK $8,200 / FD $16) – Lee’s value comes from not only being able to score well in wins but also scoring well in losses. She is 5-3 in the octagon with an average of 91.3 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) in victories, and she averages an impressive 56.7 FPPF in losses. This means win or lose she will contribute to your lineup’s scoring. She faces Viviane Araujo who is 2-2 over her last 4 fights and hasn’t scored a finish in over 3 years. Both women land at a high rate, and this should be a high-scoring fight overall. Of all fighters on Saturday, both women fall in the top 4 in significant strikes landed per round. Lee edges Araujo in strikes thrown per round (58.8 to 53.6), strikes landed per round (28.7 to 25.7), scoring average (78.28 to 69.78), height (by 2 inches), and reach (by 1.5 inches). She is priced at or near the average on both platforms, and she has a high ceiling and well-above-average floor. She is also the betting favorite.

(At the time of this writing, Andrea Lee is -121 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 60.11 on Fantasy Cruncher.)


Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

ANGELA HILL (DK $7,700 / FD $11) – Although Hill is 1-4 over her last 5 fights, 3 of her 4 losses were by split decision. This doesn’t bode well for her ability to win decisively, but it shows just how close she has been against three very good stand-up fighters. Those split decision losses came from Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha. Her opponent, Virna Jandiroba, is not as good of a striker as any of these fighters. She is a submission specialist with just one win by KO/TKO to her record. Hill must keep this fight upright to win, but as she has gone over 3 years without being finished, her chances in a decision are excellent here. With an average of 82.5 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) in her last 5 wins, she brings solid scoring potential to any lineup.

(At the time of this writing, Angela Hill is +164 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 50.43 on Fantasy Cruncher.)


That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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