DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – DuraMax Drydene 400 – May 1, 2022

DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – DuraMax Drydene 400 – May 1, 2022

Core Plays

Kyle Larson – DK: $11,800 | FD: $14,000 – Starting 3rd

There is a reason Kyle Larson is priced at this astronomical price and really the only reason you would ever spend up for this price is if you really felt it is the one guy who can influence a slate. For us, as boring and maybe unoriginal as it seems when writing up this play, that is just what we have here with Larson. Since 2017, Larson has raced seven times at Dover and he has finished inside the top-five in five of them. The last three races at Dover have all been top-three finishes. In 2021, Larson led 263 laps, in 2019, Larson led 154. Back in 2017, Larson led 241 and 137 in two races. We have not seen that massive slate-breaking performance from Larson yet this season, but we also haven’t had a ton of one-mile to 1.5-mile races yet. That is Kyle Larson season, and we are approaching it. The problem with this play as you are going to fall on two sides of it. The side where Larson dominates and you needed him despite his price, or the side where Larson doesn’t and fading him is instantly going to put you ahead of the field. I am a firm believer in track history and Larson also has back-to-back top-five finishes in his last two races. This is not an all-in play, but if anyone is going to break triple-digit fantasy output in this race, it is likely Larson. I do like including some pivot options here as well, and I think factoring in price if you are trying to go a little cheaper Martin Truex at $9,800 has also seen a lot of Dover success.

Todd Gilliland – DK: $5,400 | FD: $4,000 – Starting 34th

The only way to make an 11.8k play work is to counter it with someone a little cheaper to even it out. Todd Gilliland has been the most mispriced driver week in and week out with his price never breaking the $6,200 threshold. Gilliland is $5,400 for us here and while nothing absolutely pops off the page here, Gilliland has scored 20 or more fantasy points in seven of his eleven races on the year and 26 or more in five of his last nine. While the result came in the Trucks Series, Gilliland finished fourth at Dover in 2020. Gilliland’s best tracks over his career have been one-mile to 1.5-mile tracks, so we are getting into the meat of his comfort zone. Gilliland did crash in qualifying but since he is starting in the back already the repairs aren’t going to matter much here.

Cheat Sheet

$ TierD
High
Kyle Larson
(11.8k / 63.08)
(14k / 63.08)
William Byron
(11k / 71.01)
(13k / 71.01)
Alex Bowman
(10.1k / 47.78)
(12.5k / 47.78)
Martin Truex
(9.8k / 67.24)
(11.5k / 67.24)
Medium
Kyle Busch
(9.1k / 64.45)
(9.5k / 64.45)
Ross Chastain
(8.6k / 39.91)
(9k / 39.91)
Kurt Busch
(7.5k / 42.52)
(7k / 42.52)
Austin Cindric
(7.3k / 40.52)
(6.8k / 40.52)
Low
AJ Allmendinger
(6.2k / 24.80)
(3.5k / 24.80)
Ryan Preece
(5.7k / 15.12)
(2k / 15.12)
Todd Gilliland
(5.4k / 24.54)
(4k / 24.54)
Harrison Burton
(5k / 24.54)
(4k / 24.54)

About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports vet dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, Tennis, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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