Week 12 NFL Thanksgiving Slate – The Cruncher List for Week 12 Thanksgiving: Game-By-Game Analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel

The Cruncher List | Week 12 Thanksgiving Slate DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS Lineup Advice, Tips & Picks.

Here to help you build the best possible FanDuel & DraftKings NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Slate Line-up.

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit, Projected Total: 41.5 points

Bears vs. QB: 14th Lions vs. QB: 11th
Bears vs. RB: 20th Lions vs. RB: 29th
Bears vs. WR: 25th Lions vs. WR: 11th
Bears vs. TE: 5th Lions vs. TE: 8th

Chicago – Projected total: 22.25 points

QB Andy Dalton DK: $5,500 FD: $7,200
RB David Montgomery DK: $6,000 FD: $7,500
WR Darnell Mooney DK: $5,700 FD: $6,800
WR Marquise Goodwin DK: $3,800 FD: $5,400
TE Cole Kmet DK: $3,700 FD: $5,000

The Bears check in as three point favorites travelling to Detroit in a plus match-up.  QB Andy Dalton looks set to make the start for them this week with Fields unlikely to play, while WR Allen Robinson did not practice on Tuesday and looks unlikely to suit up.  Regardless of what Robinson’s status is, WR Darnell Mooney is an elite play on both sites.  He comes into this one as the WR4 in each of the past two weeks – and while he wasn’t efficient last week on his 16 targets, he has great big play ability once he gets the ball.  I’d expect him to get plenty of opportunities in a plus match-up this week and he’s on The Cruncher List this week.  TE Cole Kmet is the only other pass catcher worth consider, but while I think you can keep him in your player pool – I do prefer other options on the board for the Thanksgiving slate.

QB Andy Dalton is probably my favorite QB outside of Allen and Dak this week, though I do think you can make a case to just load up on those two in your builds and fade the other 4 entirely.

Finally, RB David Montgomery is an elite play that will be very highly owned.  The game script looks outstanding, the match-up is a great one for him and I’d expect a strong day with 20+ touches for him on Thursday afternoon.

The Cruncher List

  • RB David Montgomery
  • WR Darnell Mooney
  • Bears DST

Good Plays

  • None

Detroit – Projected total: 19.25 points

QB TBD DK: $ FD: $
RB D’Andre Swift DK: $7,300 FD: $8,000
WR Kalif Raymond DK: $4,600 FD: $5,100
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown DK: $4,200 FD: $5,500
TE TJ Hockenson DK: $5,200 FD: $6,000

QB Jared Goff is set to be a game time decision on Thursday – but I would be a little surprised if he does suit up.  Regardless, I don’t have too much interest in the passing game here, though I do think that TJ Hockenson is worth keeping in your player pool for a modest percentage of your line-ups.  I do prefer Waller, Schultz and Knox – but I do think that Hockenson is a fine play in this match-up fresh off of a 6-51 line on 8 targets a week ago.

RB D’Andre Swift is an elite play at RB.  He’s basically the only option that can consistently put points on the board for them, and with his ability to get chunk plays on the ground and through the air, he’s an elite option on a pretty rough slate in terms of upside options.  I do think you can make a case to fade him if you think the Lions will be completely bottled up – but all in all, I do have him on The Cruncher List for the Thanksgiving slate.

The Cruncher List

  • RB D’Andre Swift

Good Plays

  • TE TJ Hockenson

Las Vegas @ Dallas (-7), Projected total: 50.5 points

Raiders vs. QB: 22nd Cowboys vs. QB: 8th
Raiders vs. RB: 26th Cowboys vs. RB: 17th
Raiders vs. WR: 8th Cowboys vs. WR: 17th
Raiders vs. TE: 31st Cowboys vs. TE: 18th

Las Vegas – Projected Total: 21.75 points

QB Derek Carr DK: $5,900 FD: $7,400
RB Josh Jacobs DK: $5,900 FD: $6,700
WR Hunter Renfrow DK: $5,600 FD: $6,200
WR Bryan Edwards DK: $3,900 FD: $5,300
TE Darren Waller DK: $6,400 FD: $7,300

The Raiders are big dogs this week, on the road in Dallas fresh off of a one-sided loss to the Bengals a week ago.  QB Derek Carr looked hobbled at the very end of that game, though he wasn’t on the injury report this week.  This game has the highest projected total on the board, so there are some options worth strong consideration here (though for me, I’m not too interested in Carr this week):

  • TE Darren Waller is an elite play as a high spend at TE.  Salary isn’t a big consideration in builds for this slate due to the lack of options on the board that are priced up, so if you prefer getting Waller vs. some of the other high spends, it isn’t too restrictive to pay up.  He has seen at least 7 targets in all but one game this season – and while he has been disappointing relative to expectations for the year, he did clear the century mark last week and he’s a great option here.
  • RB Josh Jacobs has been catching a lot of balls out of the backfield and going up against a middling front seven for Dallas – I do think he’s a strong option at RB for this slate.  He’s a high floor option due to volume that doesn’t break the bank and because of the limited options, he is on The Cruncher List for me this week, though just barely – and largely due to the RB position for this slate being quite dire.
  • WR Hunter Renfrow is the top target at the WR position for Carr – but I do prefer other options on the board at his price point.
  • WR Bryan Edwards put up a donut a week ago and his usage in the offence is frustrating.  I do think he’s worth mixing into your player pool in large field GPP’s, and he makes for an interesting pivot or compliment off of Cedric Wilson this week if you think that he’ll get some looks in the offence.

The Cruncher List

  • RB Josh Jacobs
  • TE Darren Waller

Good Plays

  • WR Hunter Renfrow

Dallas – Projected Total: 28.75 points

QB Dak Prescott DK: $6,900 FD: $8,200
RB Ezekiel Elliott DK: $8,000 FD: $8,400
RB Tony Pollard DK: $5,600 FD: $5,900
WR CeeDee Lamb DK: $6,900 FD: $7,700
WR Michael Gallup DK: $5,900 FD: $6,500
WR Cedric Wilson DK: $3,500 FD: $5,600
TE Dalton Schultz DK: $5,300 FD: $6,000

Keep an eye on the status of WR CeeDee Lamb this week as he seems to be trying to suit up for this one after logging a practice on Wednesday.  If he plays, he is an elite option on a slate that is pretty starved for elite talent, and Lamb would be worth getting into a significant number of your line-ups if he is active on Thursday afternoon.  If he suits up, I don’t have too much interest in WR Michael Gallup, who is priced up this week at reasonable levels after being a popular Week 11 punt.  He saw 10 targets a week ago, but if Lamb is out there, I do think that he’d be hard pressed to see that many looks this week.  Either way, I love the spot for WR Cedric Wilson as a punt with upside.  He saw 7 targets a week ago, and has shown some flashes over the course of the season, and for $3,500 on DK – he’s an elite play (while on FanDuel, I would only look his way for a significant number of line-ups if Lamb sits).

TE Dalton Schultz is an elite option if Lamb is out, while if Lamb sits, I do prefer Waller and Knox myself – which would be enough for me to keep him off of The Cruncher List this week.

QB Dak Prescott is an elite option at QB this week.  I worry about him a little bit if Lamb is out – but either way, on a QB starved slate, he is my second favorite option at the position out of the 6 signal callers, he is my second favorite.

In terms of RB, Ezekiel Elliot is going to play through his knee injury and got a full practice in on Tuesday.  He’s expensive, but I would expect him to get close to a full workload this week in a plus match-up.  He’s an elite play this week.  RB Tony Pollard just misses the cut for The Cruncher List, but I would expect him to see plenty of work in this one and he makes for a very interesting pivot if you did want to fade Zeke in hopes that he is either bottled up, or sees significantly less snaps due to his lingering knee issue.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Dak Prescott (if Lamb is active)
  • RB Ezekiel Elliott
  • WR CeeDee Lamb (if active)
  • WR Cedric Wilson (DK)
  • TE Dalton Schultz (if Lamb is out)

Good Plays

  • QB Dak Prescott (if Lamb is not active)
  • RB Tony Pollard
  • WR Michael Gallup
  • TE Dalton Schultz (if Lamb is active)
  • Cowboys DST

Buffalo (-6) @ New Orleans, Projected Total: 45

Bills vs. QB: 1st Saints vs. QB: 31st
Bills vs. RB: 13th Saints vs. RB: 2nd
Bills vs. WR: 1st Saints vs. WR: 30th
Bills vs. TE: 6th Saints vs. TE: 14th

Buffalo, Projected Total: 25.50 points

QB Josh Allen DK: $7,800 FD: $8,800
RB Zack Moss DK: $4,700 FD: $5,700
RB Devin Singletary DK: $4,900 FD: $5,800
WR Stefon Diggs DK: $7,900 FD: $8,300
WR Emmanuel Sanders DK: $4,800 FD: $5,800
WR Cole Beasley DK: $4,500 FD: $5,700
TE Dawson Knox DK: $4,400 FD: $5,900

The Bills come into this one as six point favorites, which has been opening up from an open line of -4 on the road against the Saints.  They have struggled offensively in the last few games, but the match-up is a great one for the Bills passing game and I think they will be very popular on the short three game slate.  Allen and Diggs are both elite plays that offer high floors and ceilings at their respective prices.  Both of them will be popular – but to me, that is the only downside to them.  I do think you can consider hitting the lock button on Allen if you like his chances of being the best producer at QB.  Given the fact that high-spend talent is limited, I really don’t see a high likelihood for anyone other than Allen or Dak to be part of a large field GPP win.

TE Dawson Knox saw 10 targets last week and seems to be back to his role as a key cog in the offence.  He has been targeted often in the endzone when he has been healthy, and I like his odds of finding his way to a score on Thursday night this week.  He’s on The Cruncher List this week as an affordable TE option that I think has a really high ceiling.

WR Emmanuel Sanders is an interesting option, though he has been very quiet over the past four weeks.  The price point is great and I do like the spot for him.  Not quite enough to put him on The Cruncher List, but I do think he’s worth a significant percentage of builds in large field GPP’s.  WR Cole Beasley has seen significantly less target share whenever Knox has been playing, sitting at just over 17%.  To me, he’s worth mixing into builds, but he is below both Knox and Sanders for me in terms of my preference towards the Bills passing game.

I don’t have too much interest in the RB’s here.  We saw a 3-headed attack last week with Matt Breida actually looking better than the other two.  The split of snaps was pretty equal, and I’d be surprised if any of them saw enough work to be a part of a large field GPP win on this slate.

The Cruncher List

  • QB Josh Allen
  • WR Stefon Diggs
  • TE Dawson Knox
  • Bills DST

Good Plays

  • WR Emmanuel Sanders

New Orleans – Projected Total: 19.5 points

QB Trevor Semien DK: $5,600 FD: $7,000
RB Mark Ingram DK: $6,200 FD: $6,600
WR Marquez Callaway DK: $5,000 FD: $5,700
WR Tre’Quan Smith DK: $4,400 FD: $5,900
TE Juwan Johnson DK: $2,600 FD: $4,500

The Saints come into this one with a low projected total, going up against a tough defence and although the Bills were roughed up by the Colts last week thanks to Jonathan Taylor and the OL, I do think that they are not a defence that I want to be attacking much.  I think that you can keep RB Mark Ingram and WR Tre-Quan Smith in your player pools this week – and I think both are ‘good’ plays (if Ingram suits up – keep an eye on his status), but neither of them are elite plays at their price points in my opinion.  Tre’Quan gives me a little more intrigue – he comes into this one with 15 targets over the past two games, and he’s priced affordably, especially on DK, where he is relatively cheaper.

The Cruncher List

  • None

Good Plays

  • RB Mark Ingram
  • WR Tre’Quan Smith

Best of luck in your Week 12 Thanksgiving Slate Contests!  Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family & friends – and I hope you enjoy the holiday, the games, and your line-ups on DraftKings and FanDuel!

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

Check Also

FantasyCruncher NFL Elo Ratings – Week 12 (11/28/21)

NFL DFS: FantasyCruncher NFL Elo Ratings – Week 12 (11/28/21) The Elo rating system is …