The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – October 9, 2021
Welcome back everyone – it is a joy and honor to be back for the 2021 College Football season. If you are reading this, you likely can note that it is completely free. All written content on FantasyCruncher is free – the only time you will be charged is if you want access to the optimizer and access to my projections. In that case, you can follow this link to sign up – with weekly/monthly/annual options across three different tiers that should be able to fit every level of DFS player. I will be providing written content for any slate of four games or more, though projections and optimizer access will be available for all normal and showdown slates.
Malik Cunningham, UL – DK: $9,700 | FD: $11,500
When it comes to the case for Malik Cunningham it ends up being pretty easy. Through five games, Cunningham has seven touchdown passes and ten rushing touchdowns. Cunningham has exactly two rushing touchdowns in each of his first five games and gets a great individual matchup this week against a Virginia team that is allowing 194 yards rushing a game and 412 yards of total offense per game. While we are going to lean on the rushing touchdowns to reach Cunningham’s ceiling, he has been an effective passer as well this year with 261 yards and a 64% completion percentage. Between Corral, Cunningham, Stroud, and Armstrong, we have a four-stack of expensive options that all could be optimal this weekend. However, Cunningham’s rushing usage in the red zone gives him the edge for me this week.
KJ Jefferson, ARK – DK: $6,900 | FD: $8,900
There isn’t many positives to talk about from Arkansas’ last game against Georgia where they were stomped 37-0. KJ Jefferson entered the week questionable but played in this one and while his 3.1 fantasy point output is obviously bad, he completed 8-of-13 passes and rushed for five yards. All things considered with this game, not too bad. Going back a week, Jefferson put up 21.48 fantasy points against another strong defense in Texas A&M and this was a game where Jefferson did not play a majority of the fourth quarter due to being banged up. In five starts, Jefferson has ran for over 50-yards in three of them and while inconsistent, has shown the chops to be an effective passer as well. Arkansas enters this game as six point underhogs (good pun, thanks) to Ole Miss, but the pace Ole Miss likes to play at will increase the pace as well for Arkansas. The Razorbacks are still projected for 30-points in this one, and Jefferson’s price falls a little too low for the implied total here.
Taulia Tagovailoa, UMD – DK: $6,000 | FD: $9,000
This is a price play solely for DraftKings as we can see the wide gap between the pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel here. There are a lot of drawbacks to this play however as well, so let’s be real and cover them. Positives: Taulia is averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game on the year and has passed for 270 yards or more in four of his five games. Last week against Iowa, one of the nation’s top defenses, Taulia managed just 157 yards and threw for *five* interceptions. In the end, he still ended with 11.68 fantasy points. Thos five interceptions make up five of the six he has thrown on the year, so prior to the Iowa game he at least has settled in from one of his biggest flaws from last season. The biggest negative here though is the Terps leading receiver Dontay Demus will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Demus was averaging 101 yards receiving a game through five games and is a massive blow to this passing game. I am a big believer however in next man up in college football and Maryland still has some talent in Rakim Jarrett, Jeshaun Jones, Fleet-Davis. This offense will need to step up when they face Ohio State this weekend, but Tagovailoa still makes an interesting super-flex play against an Ohio State defense that is still allowing near 400 yards of offense a game and 251 yards passing. We can also assume Maryland plays from behind here, so we can assume attempts in the 40’s here. There is risk here, but the price is interesting.
Tyler Allgeier, BYU – DK: $7,800 | FD: $9,500
Allgeier has been incredibly consistent to start the season, though his best game of the year came last week in which he took 22 carries for 218 yards and three touchdowns against Utah State. BYU is an interesting case right now as both Jaren Hall and Baylor Romney have proven to be talented play-callers and both have held the quarterback position at some point this season. Hall hasn’t played the last two weeks and Hall off of the field actually boosts Allgeier’s upside as Hall has 20 rushes for over 150 yards on the year. Romney finds himself as more of a pocket passer who through two starts on the year has a 79% completion percentage. However, Romney left last week’s game with a head injury. So entering this week, both signal callers for BYU find themselves questionable. If we have a scenario where both Hall and Romney are ruled out, Jacob Conover would likely grab the start and the offense would flow directly through Tyler Allgeier. If Baylor Romney starts, we should get a traditional usage from Allgeier in a more balanced offense. If we get Hall back, the upside shrinks a little as Hall has the rushing ability, but regardless Allgeier and the Cougars face a Boise State team that is allowing 194 yards of rushing per game this year. Lopini Katoa will get his handful of carries, but he has proven himself ineffective on the year, averaging just 28 yards per game.
Leddie Brown, WV – DK: $6,500 | FD: N/A
Leddie Brown is likely always going to find a way into my articles if his matchup is at least average and his price is mid-tier. That again, is what we get this week. Leddie Brown was the only running back to take a hand-off last week against Texas Tech and all other running backs not named Leddie Brown for West Virginia have just two carries on the year outside of the week two matchup against LIU (a program I literally don’t know if is actually real or not). So big box number one is checked: Brown is a full usage workhorse back for the Mountaineers. The biggest threat to steal carries or goal-line work is the backup quarterback in Garrett Greene, who has seen five carries in each of his last two games. While West Virginia only carries a 20.75 team total against Baylor this week, the rushing game should be the game plan here. Baylor was torched for 234 rushing yards last week against Oklahoma State and are allowing near 160 yards on the ground per game. The secret is kind of out on both of these teams – West Virginia doesn’t really have a passing game and Baylor doesn’t have a great rush defense. Sounds like a good opportunity to roster Brown again to me.
Kevin Harris, SOCAR – DK: $5,000 | FD: $5,900
This price on FanDuel feels way too low for Kevin Harris, a guy who had 1,138 yards rushing last year and 15 touchdowns. While Harris only has 46 attempts in 2021 and 149 yards, he has been working his way back from injury and the coaching staff has been taking it very easy in easing him back to action. Last week against Troy, Harris rushed 11 times for 47 yards and caught two passes for 49 yards. Harris has six receptions now over his last two weeks. South Carolina coaching has made comments suggesting that Harris is fully back now and his health restrictions should fully be lifted in this matchup. Tennessee’s rush defense has been solid this year, allowing just a hair over 100 yards per game. However, the South Carolina offense is pretty void of playmakers and while they carry just a 23-point implied team total, that is still three touchdowns coming from somewhere. Harris is an incredibly talented back who I feel is on the brink of a breakout. The price on both sites make the risk worth it as even if we get a “down” game, Harris has established himself around a 10 fantasy point floor.
Dontayvion Wicks, UV – DK: $7,000 | FD: $9,000
The top-tier receivers are a bit jumbled this week as there are several ways we could go as there isn’t an incredibly expensive option. Dontario Drummond tops the pricing on DraftKings at $7,700 with Chris Olave, Jayden Reed, Jahan Dotson, and Khalil Shakir behind him. Of those listed, Reed, Dotson, and Shakir all have team totals of 27 points or less. Wicks get one of the better individual matchups as Virginia takes on Louisville and carries a near five-touchdown team total. Wicks on the season has 535 yards and five touchdowns and is the big downfield threat for the Cavaliers. Bryce Armstrong already has 1,973 yards passing and 14 passing touchdowns through just five games, and that includes some tough matchups with Illinois, UNC, Wake, and Miami. While those aren’t dominating offenses, he also isn’t out here chucking touchdowns against FCS teams. Against UNC, Armstrong threw for 554 yards. The Louisville/Virginia game carries the slates highest implied total and while the Virginia offense spreads the ball, the strong arm of Armstrong will be looking Wicks way. Wicks carries just an 18% target share in the offense, but that is still 40 targets on the year. The large passing attempts drop the percentage, but Wicks still has the second-most receptions and targets on the team, only behind Billy Kemp who mainly lives in the flats. Wicks carries the kind of game that is usually labeled “boom or bust” but he has also shown that his “bust” floor is still around 13 fantasy points. With Louisville’s passing defense ranking near the back end of college football, we could see some massive passing yards out of Virginia this weekend.
Treylon Burks, ARK – DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,900
I do not think stacking KJ Jefferson with one of his receivers is a necessary strategy, but Treylon Burks is a home run hitter who leads the Arkansas passing game with a 38% target share in the offense. It was quiet last week with just three catches on seven targets, but we saw Burks erupt for 167 yards on six catches the week prior against Texas A&M. On the year, Burks has 22 catches on 38 targets for 383 yards and two touchdowns. As mentioned, the pace of Ole Miss will force the tempo of Arkansas and if Ole Miss’ offense rebounds from last week against Alabama, we could be looking at a potential shootout. The price on Burks here is very fair on each site.
Rakim Jarrett, UMD – DK: $4,100 | FD: $7,500
We can instantly see the wide gap between the DraftKings and FanDuel pricing here and while Jarrett has been quiet the last two weeks, he still saw eight targets last week and has a 20% target share in the offense. But, with Dontay Demus out for the season that is another 20% target share that needs to be redistributed in the offense. While Demus had nearly 250 more receiving yards than Jarrett, the target share was equal. More is going to be asked out of Jarrett with Demus out and the matchup against Ohio State heavily implies a pass-heavy week for Maryland.