MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for September 14, 2021
Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
We have a solid 12 game main slate to work with today across the major contest providers, and a pretty clear top 6 has emerged from a pitching perspective.
If Cole’s healthy, he should be in for a great night
Leading the way is Gerrit Cole, both in terms of DFS salary but also in skill. His 2.65 SIERA over the last month with a 13.0 K/9 are both tops on the board here. He’s getting whiffs and chases at an elite clip, and the surface stats are fully backing everything that the sabermetrics are supporting (1.27 ERA). The Orioles batters have a .197 wOBA and .090 ISO with a 40% K% in their last 5 year’s worth of at bats against him, and he should continue to absolutely mow them down in this one. Just as long as his hamstring doesn’t give him any trouble (leaving his last start early vs TOR after just 3.2 IP). I still think that he’s worth exposure here in GPPs. The injury could bring your exposure down a bit, though.
Eovaldi should cruise in Seattle
Next up is Nathan Eovaldi against the Mariners. He’s been absolutely stellar lately, sporting a 3.10 SIERA and 10.9 K/9 in his last 5 starts. Although he hasn’t been fortunate to win any of those (some late inning bullpen challenges mostly to do with that), his matchup with SEA and their 26% K% split should work nicely in his favor here. There really isn’t much success to speak to in the Seattle lineup, as a .262 wOBA and .160 ISO for their last 5 year’s worth of at bats is plenty to like from a matchup standpoint. For a high velocity guy against a team that doesn’t have a ton of power top to bottom in their lineup, it should work out nicely – especially throwing in a nice pitcher’s park.
If we learned anything from Manoah’s start yesterday, Berrios should enjoy his night, too
Jose Berrios is the next Toronto RHP to get the ball against the Rays. Just one night after Alek Manoah dazzled with 8 innings of one hit ball with 10 Ks, the Jays’ deadline acquisition looks to bring his strong recent play to the mound at Rogers Center against their division rivals. His 3.15 SIERA and 11.1 K/9 over the last month are excellent, and the TBR lineup does have a slightly higher K% against RHP than LHP on the year. Like Manoah, not much is flat when it comes to Berrios’ approach and arsenal, which you have to like just one night later for a similar styled-SP. He seems to be settling in nicely for the Jays, and the price is certainly solid coming into this one for GPP purposes.
A post-hype breakout in the making?
Erick Fedde may not appear to be a name that you will get too excited about, but hear me out. His 3.77 SIERA over the last month (5 starts) is very strong – particularly given the 5.96 ERA may not stand out as anything special. Well, he’s been victim to the long ball (20% HR/FB) and has the lowest strand rate on the board in that time (61%) to go along with a .360 BABIP. For a guy that certainly is passing the eye test as well these days, and getting the lowly Marlins, I love the idea of investing for value purposes. He’s only $6,900 on DK – an excellent SP2 to pair with the likes of a Cole, Berrios or Eovaldi with strong underlying metrics. I’m penciling him in as an early 2022 breakout candidate and late round flier in season-long fantasy baseball.
A couple more with high projections today
Marcus Stroman and Frankie Montas are both projected for productive outings tonight. However, I do think they have been overachieving a little lately (the SIERA-ERA tells that story) and we have much higher overall ceilings with the aforementioned 4 names with higher K rates, lower walk rates and tastier matchups with higher K% tendencies, too. Between the two, I’d prefer to roll with Montas if you feel compared to go one of these two directions. Not only is his raw stuff just a tad better, generating more whiffs and chases than Stroman, but his resume against the Royals is stronger. Other than Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield, there really isn’t much from a BvP perspective that I’m worried about. He’s owned Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez and Nicky Lopez in particular to date, keeping their active lineup to a sub-.285 wOBA and .122 ISO. Again, I’d prefer you go a different direction altogether with other names above.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!