MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for September 13, 2021
Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
It’s a fairly thin pitching day overall in my eyes, without many options that I feel particularly good about recommending.
Just play Alcantara. Period.
Sandy Alcantara against the Nats is your premium name today. He’s been phenomenal over the last month for the Marlins, clearly finding his stride in a number of ways. His 2.45 SIERA (2.17 ERA) is backed up by just about every accompanying metric imaginable. A 18% whiff rate, 41% chase rate and elite 12.1 K/9 / 51% GB% / 1.2 BB/9 combo are amongst the healthiest you’ll ever see. Frankly, a lot of these metrics are the kinds of things we’ve seen from Jacob deGrom when he’s healthy. He could easily be regarded as one of the top overall pitchers in baseball right now, and is worth the price of admission on a short slate across the industry. The $9,600 on DraftKings is particularly appealing.
Alcantara’s opponent has value appeal
Ironically, the one value that based on skill has some serious appeal is Alcantara’s opponent – Paolo Espino. In the last month, he’s rocking a 3.61 SIERA and 10.7 K/9 in 5 starts. Both of those metrics are second on the slate after Alcantara in that time period. He has not, however, been as great on the surface. His 6.08 ERA and .333 BABIP will mostly keep folks away from him, but a night against the Marlins and their .285 wOBA / 25% K% in the split could very well lead to something fairly productive at a discounted price. He’s very good value at $6,100 on DraftKings.
This has risk, but positive regression is coming
Eduardo Rodriguez is really having a tough time this year. Based on what I’m seeing, it looks like he’s tipping some of his pitches. His changeup, cutter and sinker are all far less effective than they were just a couple of seasons ago, but luck certainly has something to do with it. Per Baseball Savant, just about each of his pitchers are seeing expected metrics far below the actuals, with the 4-seamer (xwOBA .304 and wOBA of .367) being a prime indicator of that misfortune. Well, against the Mariners tonight, I’m prepared to take a bit of a chance on him in GPPs. He has great stuff (37% chase% in the last month) and the Mariners have a 25% K% in the split this year. There’s a good chance that he rights the ship (at least to a degree) tonight against Seattle, and he throws in a really nice pitching environment for LHPs (no Green Monster to deal with) as well.
Pass on Kershaw tonight
Clayton Kershaw is taking the mound for the Dodgers tonight, which is a welcome sight for his fans and teammates alike. He hasn’t started a game since July 3 – missing over 2 months with forearm issues. He probably won’t be back to full strength and pitch count for another 1-2 turns through the rotation, so I’m not racing to play him in DFS tonight at the elevated $10,000+ prices.
I really do think it’s an Alcantara (FD & DK SP1) night as your anchor, and either Espino (DK SP2) or E-Rod (DK SP2 in GPPs) – unless you want to risk it with Yu Darvish or even Jake Odorizzi as secondary tournament options. Though both have plenty of red flags themselves right now.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!