MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for September 12, 2021
Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
The Sunday main slate across the two major contest sites (FanDuel and DraftKings) brings us a handful of really strong pitching options to consider.
Most of the names are in the upper tier price-wise, but we do have at least one that bleeds into the middle tier for a bit more price-specific flexibility (and potential value).
Let’s dive in and have a look at who we’re eyeing this afternoon.
Another opportunity to spin a Webb of mystery
Logan Webb against the Cubs is just about as good as it gets on the slate. No really, Logan Webb. In case you haven’t been following the young San Francisco righty too closely, he’s having one heck of a breakout season at age 24. His velocity is up this year a bit (averaging 93 mph on the fastball), and he’s unlocked one of the nastiest pitches in the game. His slider has a 46.6% whiff% per Baseball Savant this year, and he uses it 28% of the time. That’s good for a .155 AVG against (.159 xBA) and mere .181 wOBA (.196 xwOBA) as well. Truly dominant. Add that to the rest of his arsenal and approach, and you have yourself someone with a 2.60 SIERA, 16% whiff% and 39% chase% in his last 34.1 IP. Not to mention a slate-best 62.5% ground ball rate in that time as well. With how poorly the Cubs are against RHP these days, he’s grading out as the #1 option on the board today in my eyes.
Easily the best value on DraftKings today
Max Fried against the Marlins is a pretty darn intriguing option as well. His 75% win% is tied for tops on the slate (at least until Vegas releases the SF/CHC line), and the 3.0 run total for MIA is also elite. He has a 59% GB% in his last 5 starts with a 3.24 SIERA. Very solid metrics against a team with a sub-.300 wOBA and 27% K% in the split. He should have no problem running the table against the Marlins, and should be particularly popular on DraftKings given the $8,000 salary as well. He’s the #1 over value option there in my eyes.
A potentially dominant situation is ready to unfold for HOU
Lance McCullers is in a solid spot against the Angels, sitting with a 72% win% and 3.4 opponent total. His 61% GB% in the last month are excellent as well, and his 10.1 K/9 in that time is top 4 on the slate in that time period. Active Angels bats have very little success against McCullers (.229 wOBA and .071 ISO), which is important to note given the current matchup dynamics of a depleted lineup that we shouldn’t undervalue. He’s very pricey at $10,100 on DraftKIngs, but a very affordable $9,000 on FanDuel. Perfect for tournament lineups there in my eyes.
Nola’s got some upside, but it does come a bit of risk
Lastly, Aaron Nola against the Rockies sits pretty today. His 11.1 K/9 and 1.15 WHIP on the year are rock solid, and despite a 5.60 ERA in his last month of action, he has a 3.47 SIERA (2+ full runs better than the surface stat suggests). His 10.9 K/9 in the last month is actually tops on the slate, and a COL lineup that doesn’t fare particularly well against RHP does line up nicely for him. I’m not too eager to go crazy with exposure though, as a few COL bats do have solid experience against Nola. Particularly Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia and Ryan McMahon who all have wOBAs for their career over .500 against him (limited ABs, though). He’s an intriguing GPP candidate with strikeout upside, but is certainly fourth in priority for me today.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!