DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – US Open – September 3, 2021 (9/3/21)
Naomi Osaka: $10,200 (vs. Fernandez)
I’ve said it before and I will say it again, Naomi Osaka is the best women’s hardcourt tennis player when she is locked in and while she advanced here from a walkover, she looked strong in her round one win over Bouzkova. While Osaka got here on a walkover, it also means she enters this as fresh as can be. Osaka won the US Open in 2018 and again last year defeating Azarenka. Fernandez is an up-and-coming talent at 18, but prior to the US Open was just 1-5 in her previous six matches. Osaka carries over a 300 point elo advantage on hard courts, which implies an over 80% chance of advancement. Add in that she is -600 favorite here and Osaka seems primed to advance here. Fernandez is going to be a name to watch for years to come, but her inexperience here on this large of a stage should give Osaka a nice edge here.
Alexei Popyrin: $6,700 (vs. Evans)
Dan Evans entered this tournament pretty cold, with just one match win in his previous four tournaments but has strung together some wins here at the US Open. Evans’s two wins here have both been against clay-court specialists, so there is definitely some luck of the draw here. Overall, Evans is 21-17 on the year with a 9-8 hard court record. Popyrin on the year is 26-19 and 12-9 on hard courts and got here by defeating Dimitrov in a 2-0 win in which Dimitrov retired when Pop was up 4-0 in the third set. Popyrin fired 12 aces in this short match and has a 12.17% Ace% on the year. While Evans carries a slightly better elo on hard courts, the oddsmakers have this match as essentially a pickem. While that is how oddsmakers feel, DraftKings doesn’t as Evans is priced $1,500 higher than Popyrin. Based on what we have here, Popyrin is likely the chalk value of the slate, but he is a pricing error. Regardless of the pricing error, I think Popyrin has the better current game if he can keep his accuracy in check. Producing power is not the issue with Popyrin, but keeping a level-headed game under pressure has been in the past. Evans has a game that can counter here, but the price here pushes Popyrin to the top of value for me.
$ Tier P High Daniil Medvedev (10.9k / 85.91) Naomi Osaka (10.2k / 69.97) Stefanos Tsitsipas (10k / 72.19) Medium Ons Jabeur (8.3k / 50.64) Henri Laaksonen (8k / 54.28) Simona Halep (7.7k / 49.95) Roberto Bautista-Agut (7.6k / 47.37) Low Alexei Popyrin (6.7k / 49.85) Sloane Stephens (5.6k / 28.58) Frances Tiafoe (5.4k / 32.78)