The 2021 Tour Championship: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 Tour Championship! Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The 2021 Tour Championship!  We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The 2021 Tour Championship here!

This week the best on tour this season will be teeing it up, playing for a massive purse for The 2021 Tour Championship!  Like last week at the BMW, it is another limited (even moreso than last week) field event – with the 30 best players this season battling it out.  DraftKings has given us some pretty wonky pricing this week, with players as expensive as $13,400 (Cantlay) and as cheap as $5k – so there are all sorts of different ways you can go about building line-ups as the players are each starting in unique positions with ‘starting scores’ based on where they rank on tour.  Finishing position is key here – so Cantlay’s starting score of -10 is pretty important – but one thing to note is that whoever comes last in this tournament will only score 7 less DKP based on finishing position than the golfer who finishes 7th.

You’ll likely need the winner in your builds as they get a 10 point advantage over whoever finishes second, but all in all – you’ll be looking for golfers that have the ability to rack up points through scoring at East Lake, which checks in as a Par 70 at over 7300 yards that emphasizes importance with golfers ability to gain strokes through their approach shots and less so off of the tee.

The Best of the best…

  • Jon Rahm, $13,000

The biggest drawback here is that he starts 4 strokes back….but I still think he’s got a great shot at winning this thing this weekend.  He’s been the best player on tour this season in my opinion – and I think his game is a great fit for East Lake and is worth spending up for this week as a pivot off of Cantlay.  Rankings 1st on tour in SG: TTG, Total and 7th in SG: APP, he’s got a great shot at being in the final group on Sunday this week.

The Next Group

  • Rory McIlroy, $9,300

He comes into this one playing pretty good golf, with two top 5 finishes in his last 5 events.  Historically, he has been great at this event, and I like his chances of being able to navigate East Lake as it is a great fit for his game.  There’s a discount baked in here based on his starting score (2-under) – but he is too good of a golfer to be priced this low at this event.  I like his chances of having one of the better ROI’s for golfers over $9k this week.

  • Brooks Koepka, $7,800

He has always been a big tournament player – and the paycheck and notoriaty of playing for the Tour Championship is likely to bring out his a-game.  The price point here is outstanding for a player who can rack up birdies at will when his game is on, and he makes for an excellent option for a mid-priced play this week who comes into this one

  • Daniel Berger, $5,800

He starts at even par – so if you toss out the chance of him having a high place finish, there’s still a lot to like here.  He’s regularly someone that I tout, so it’s probably not a surprise to see him on this list at this price.  An elite ball striker, Berger is one of the better players on tour in my books – and is a perfect part of a barbelled line-up construction this week, which is how I prefer to play this event.

Don’t Forget About…

  • Corey Connors, $6,200

Connors has been elite for the vast majority of the season, showing the chops to hang with the best on tour and qualify for this tournament.  An elite ball striker, his game fits this course to a tee, and I like his chances of putting four strong rounds together and providing one of the best ROI’s on the board for the Tour Championship.  He is an elite ball striker who ranks 9th on tour in SG: APP and while I don’t think you have to be elite off the tee to contend here, his 8th place rank in SG: OTT is certainly nothing to punish him for.  If he can be decent around the green, I like his chances this week as a low-end play in the no cut event.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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