DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – US Open – August 30, 2021 (8/30/21)
Before diving into my few core plays of this slate, I just want to reiterate the fact that this is a 44-match slate, so we have a pool of 88 tennis players here to choose from. While I am highlighting my personal favorites below, by no means is this an all-in position for either of them as there is just a large sheer number of options on this slate. DraftKings also had all the betting markets available to them, so pricing is mostly going to follow Vegas odds from top to bottom (the larger the favorite, the higher the salary). Within the next few slates, we may be able to get a few better options in terms of pricing mistakes.
Benoit Paire: $7,700 (vs. Lajovic)
Instead of throwing a write-up in about some high-priced guy who will likely get a sweep – IE: Dimitrov, Tsitsipas, etc, I figured a core plays of mid to low-tier options will likely be more helpful on such a large slate. Neither Paire nor Lajovic enter this match with a great season behind them, but the form of Paire has been way better recently, compared to Lajovic who has been swept out of his last two matches. As I have touched on in the past, Paire can be a bit of a mental case, letting him beating himself in a lot of cases. The 12-22 record on the year looks pretty bad, but he is recently off of a Quarterfinal run at Cincinnati, in which he pushed Rublev to three sets. It was no pushover of competition, as Paire beat Kecmanovic, Shapovalov, and Isner to get to the QF. The following week, Paire defeated Giles Simon in straight sets before falling to Ruusuvuori in a three-set match. You can paint the narrative however you wish, but Paire has always been a player who feeds on confidence and rhythm. These two have met three times total, with Paire having a 2-1 advantage and a 2-0 on hard courts, though their most recent match was in 2020 when Paire won 6-2, 6-7, 6-4. Paire also carries an Ace% of 10% and while this is a Major, so three sets to win, Paire should still be able to get to the 15+ ace bonus on DraftKings. This is by no means a lock, but for me, it is a guy in Paire, who has a pretty high ceiling at a low price in a very winnable matchup.
Sloane Stephens: $7,300 (vs. Keys)
While the current runs of both Americans in Stephens and Keys here have been full of losses, I have had the (dis)pleasure of watching some of Keys’ recent ones and she looks absolutely defeated. With a delayed start to her year, Keys holds a 10-12 record, but just two wins on hard courts. Keys has lost opening-round matches in the last three tournaments and has not even won a single set during that stretch. Stephens on the other hand currently sits at 15-14 on the year, though her hard court record isn’t any more impressive at just 3-8. These two have met a total of six times, with Sloane Stephens holding a 4-2 head-to-head advantage and a 2-0 advantage on hard courts. With the betting odds being a pick ’em right now, we get a small $200 discount on Stephens who is at least in better form right now than Keys. While Stephens has lost her last two matches, they both went to three sets and she lost each by a total of 16-17 in games won/lost. In fact, Stephen’s last four losses have come in three sets. Keys form looks to be incredibly poor right now and if Stephens doesn’t beat herself, she should be able to advance here.
$ Tier P High Grigor Dimitrov (11.2k / 76.19) Stefanos Tsitsipas (11k / 77.43) Barbora Krejcikova (10.8k / 69.86) Elina Svitolina (10.2k / 69.39) Cristian Garin (9.6k / 60.88) Kevin Anderson (9.4k / 62.04) Medium James Duckworth (8.6k / 59.02) Botic Van De Zandschulp (8.5k / 56.69) Irina-Camelia Begu (7.9k / 45.31) Caroline Garcia (7.8k / 49.48) Benoit Paire (7.7k / 48.11) Simona Halep (7.6k / 51.16) Low Sloane Stephens (7.3k / 50.65) Brandon Nakashima (6.7k / 41.76) Henri Laaksonen (6.6k / 43.63) Elena-Gabriela Ruse (4.9k / 27.75)