DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Verizon 200 – August 15, 2021
Kevin Harvick – DK: $8,000 | FD: $9,500 – Starting 25th
Truthfully I have never seen Kevin Harvick’s price down to this spot at just $8,000 on DraftKings which is $2,300 cheaper than just two races ago and well off his season average of around the mid-$9,000 range. Now, it is not unreasonable to see Harvick’s price drop this far, he has not had a great year by his racing standards, but he still has 17 top-ten finishes in 26 races and an average finish of 11th. We have also seen a slight return to form recently, as Harvick has finished top-eight in five of his last seven races. So the recent form is actually pretty good and the price is amazing, so what else could we get? Well, how about back-to-back wins at Brickyard? Historically, this has been Harvick’s best track, as in 20 career races he holds an average finish of eighth. Over Harvick’s last seven races here he hasn’t finished worse than eighth and has finished in the top six in each of his last seven. Harvick led 68 laps en route to the win here in 2020 and then 118 laps in the win in 2019. Now, I know the track is different, now driving on the 14-turn 2.439 oval, but no matter how we slice the track up, the price is too good here. Obviously the past success doesn’t quite matter when now racing on a completely different track type, but the starting position mixed with the price here makes Harvick very high upside as we won’t have as many laps to gain laps led or fast laps from – differential is king today.
Brad Keselowski – DK: $8,200 | FD: $8,000 – Starting 31st
I am breaking form a bit this week and going with two mid-tier priced plays instead of a high dollar and low dollar option. For low-dollar options, you can reference the Cheat Sheet below as always. But almost everything I said with Kevin Harvick applies here to Brad Keselowski as his price is still just too cheap on the given DFS sites. I will concede that Kes has had one of the more disappointing seasons of the year, with just 10 top-ten finishes in 26 races. That being said, he still carries an average finishing spot of 13.2 on the year and does at least have one win to his name. Kes had two third-place finishes in his previous four races and excluding the Glen has averaged around 50 fantasy points per race cumulatively. Indy has been a kind track to Kes in the past, with a 4th place finish in 2020, a win in 2018, and a second in 2017. Kes has been priced at $9,200 or higher in each of his last three races. I’m not nuts about Kes on a road course, but in the same breathe as Harvick, the price is hard to ignore with the differential upside.
$ Tier D High Chase Elliott (11k / 47.54) (14k / 47.54) Kyle Larson (10.8k / 45.27) (13.5k / 45.27) Denny Hamlin (10k / 53.42) (12k / 53.42) Austin Cindric (9.4k / 47.88) (9k / 47.88) Medium AJ Allmendinger (8.8k / 32.15) (10.5k / 32.15) Alex Bowman (8.4k / 43.42) (9.2k / 43.42) Brad Keselowski (8.2k / 53.11) (8k / 53.11) Kevin Harvick (8k / 55.34) (9.5k / 55.34) Low Ross Chastain (7.7k / 24.54) (7.5k / 24.54) Aric Almirola (6.9k / 25.81) (6.5k / 25.81) Austin Dillon (6.3k / 23.42) (5.5k / 23.42) Corey Lajoie (5.6k / 11.00) (3.5k / 11.00)