DFS Analysis of UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane (August 7, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane (8/7/21)


The UFC heads to Houston for more MMA action from the Lone Star State. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

ALONZO MENIFIELD (DK $9,200 / FD $21) – Despite losing 2 of his last 3 fights, Menifield has first-round finishes in his last 5 victories inside the octagon. Most recently, he took a grand total of 71 seconds to submit Fabio Cherant in March of this year. He lost to both Devin Clark and Ovince St. Preux in 2020, but his opponent on Saturday, Ed Herman, is not on the level of these light heavyweights. Herman is a journeyman fighter with a mediocre record. He is 5-5 over his last 10 fights. Herman won’t be able to withstand the pressure of Menifield, and that’s why Menifield is currently a -140 favorite to win this one inside the distance.

(At the time of this writing, Alonzo Menifield is -244 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 71.70 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Value

SONG YADONG (DK $8,000 / FD $13) – Yadong’s stock is down after dropping his latest fight to Kyler Phillips in a decision loss in March of 2021. However, before that loss, he was unbeaten over his previous 9 fights going 8-0-1 over that span. In those 8 victories, Yadong scored 5 finishes with 3 wins by KO/TKO and 2 wins by submission. His fantasy average in the UFC stands at 77.6 FPPF giving him the third-best number in that category for all fighters on Saturday. His opponent, Casey Kenney, is the favorite in this matchup by mere pennies on the money line. If Yadong can score the minor upset, he will bring good value to his salary which is below average on both platforms. With an average 10 points higher than Kenney, Yadong is the better play here in my opinion.

(At the time of this writing, Song Yadong is -106 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.33 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

JESSICA PENNE (DK $7,900 / FD $12) – Penne’s fight with Karolina Kowalkiewicz is quite lackluster – unless you are in search of a solid underdog play. Penne is 3-3 over her last 6 fights. However, among those losses are defeats at the hands of high-level UFC fighters, Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Her opponent, on the other hand, has lost her last 4 fights and is just 2-6 over her last 8 fights. This bout is a -360 favorite to go the distance, giving Penne the chance of accumulating fantasy points win or lose. I make this fight very even and will give Penne play in cash lineups. I like her chances to upset here, and even in a losing effort, she is sure to contribute to your fantasy scoring.

(At the time of this writing, Jessica Penne is +113 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 56.51 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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