DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Quaker State 400 – July 11, 2021

DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Quaker State 400 – July 11, 2021

Core Plays

Kevin Harvick – DK: $10,900 | FD: 11,700 – Starting 21st

To put it simply, this has always been Kevin Harvick’s best overall track. Harvick has finished inside the top ten in ten of his last eleven races, and won this race in 2020 and 2018. Not only has Harvick won this race a few times and consistently finished in the top-five, but he also has been set up to win each race here since 2015. That might sound hyperbolic, but it really is not. In 2014, Harvick finished 19th, but still led 195 laps. In 2015 he led 116. 2016 he led 131, 2017 he led 292, 2018 181, 2019 45, and 2020 he led 151. Back in March of this year, Harvick failed to lead a lap here since 2013. If we exclude the 19th place finish in 2014, Harvick has an average finish at Atlanta of 4.9 over his last 12 years. The starting position of 21st here gives us differential upside, but does shrink the laps led upside. Back in 2019, Harvick started 18th which is the furthest comparable starting position we have – in that race he still managed to lead 45 laps. The Harvick equipment is still good, albeit not as great as it once was. But the differential upside here is too great to ignore mixed with this being statistically Harvick’s best career track.

Ryan Newman – DK: $6,100 | FD: $5,800 – Starting 29th

Newman continues to be that pick and choose driver for us where on some weeks his ceiling is harder to ignore than his floor. Newman has not been anything special this year with just four top ten finishes in 23 races, but he has given us an average finish of 20th on the season. Atlanta has also been one of Newman’s best tracks in recent history, finishing 13, 14, and 13 over his last three races here. Over Newman’s last seven races on 1.5-mile tracks, he carries an average finish of 16th, with his best finish being a seventh at Miami. I know this isn’t super juicy analysis, but the truth is with these non-practice, non-qualifying weekends, we just have to go off of trends and Newman has been value recently more often than not. If you really want to roster Kyle Larson or Kevin Harvick (or both) you are going to need to punt your value and Newman holds ceiling the best for us here while still punting.

Cheat Sheet

$ TierD
High
Kyle Larson
(12k / 53.18)
(14.5k / 53.18)
Kevin Harvick
(10.9k / 54.18)
(11.7k / 54.18)
William Byron
(10k / 48.24)
(11.5k / 48.24)
Medium
Alex Bowman
(9.4k / 42.81)
(11k / 42.81)
Brad Keselowski
(9.2k / 46.05)
(12k / 46.05)
Daniel Suarez
(7.7k / 38.34)
(6.5k / 38.34)
Ryan Preece
(7.4k / 39.51)
(4k / 39.51)
Low
Erik Jones
(6.9k / 37.96)
(4.5k / 37.96)
Bubba Wallace Jr
(6.3k / 25.49)
(5.5k / 25.49)
Ryan Newman
(6.1k / 31.10)
(5.8k / 31.10)
Michael McDowell
(5.9k / 23.06)
(5k / 23.06)
 

About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports Veteran dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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