UFC 263 – June 12, 2021: Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Fight Study (6/12/21)


In the first of two title fights on Saturday, the flyweight division’s number one ranked contender, Brandon Moreno, will rematch the division’s current champ, Deiveson Figueiredo, after the two fought to a draw in the first iteration of this matchup back in December of last year. Despite the outcome of the first fight, Figueiredo is the heavy favorite in the rematch and he will carry the higher fantasy salaries. He can be rostered for $9.100 on DraftKings and $21 on Fanduel. Moreno will have the price tags of $7,100 and $17 respectively. As a title fight, this fight has been scheduled for 5 rounds inside the octagon, however, it is a -150 favorite to end before reaching a decision.

Moreno shocked the world with his outstanding performance against a great champion like Figueiredo in their first fight. They fought to a draw, yet Moreno is again a sizable underdog in this fight. He has a career record of 18-5-2 with 3 wins by KO/TKO, 10 wins by submission and 5 wins by decision. He is undefeated for more than 3 years now and has defeated every opponent outside of Figueiredo (current flyweight champ) and Askar Askarov (the 2nd ranked contender in the division) over that span. He fought both of them to a draw. He stands 2 inches taller and has a 2 inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday. His confidence going into this rematch is boosted after equaling the champ last time around.

Figueiredo is a great champion with a career record of 20-1-1 with 9 wins by KO/TKO, 8 wins by submission and 3 wins by decision. His power in the flyweight division is unheard of, and he has lost just once. That loss came at the hands of Jussier Formiga – a fighter Moreno defeated in March of last year. The world will be watching on Saturday to see how he responds to his draw with Moreno. Most, like myself, expect to see him reach even deeper to prove he deserves to be considered the stand alone greatest flyweight in the world.

I believe both fighters will elevate their game in this title fight. Moreno has even more confidence after taking the champ the distance and getting the draw. His hunger for the belt will have grown since getting a taste of it in the first fight. Figueiredo, on the other hand, had a scare and will be even more ferocious in his defense of the belt this time around. I am somewhat surprised to see that Moreno’s performance still left him as a sizable underdog for the rematch. I anticipate this will fuel Moreno even more. Although I still believe Figueiredo is the slightly better fighter, I expect to see another close fight in Glendale.

Moreno’s salary is much too low to pass up. Any fighter who steps into the octagon with Figueiredo runs the risk of being a total bust, but with 5 rounds to work with, I expect Moreno to score well win, lose… or draw. Last time out, he scored 86.0 FP (DraftKings scoring) without the benefit on a conclusion bonus. Figueiredo only scored 78.5 FP. Clearly, Moreno deserves consideration in all formats and on both platforms. He is especially valuable on DraftKings where he is priced well below the average salary. I don’t often suggest playing both sides of the same fight, but last fight’s results show the potential this fight has for that strategy. Both fighters are well worth good exposure in GPP contests, but Moreno’s salary gives him the chance at great value on Saturday.

For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 263 on June 12.


UFC 262: FIGHT #2, Moreno vs Figueiredo

For Fight Study on UFC 263: FIGHT #1, Vettori vs Adesanya, click HERE.

For Fight Study on UFC 263: FIGHT #3, Diaz vs Edwards, click HERE.

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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