DraftKings & FanDuel League of Legends (LoL) Cheat Sheet – LPL/LCK – June 11, 2021
We get our first slate of the season with no hands-on favorite, so we can expect a very tournament-heavy style set of builds with us being able to get a lot of value pieces today.
Starting in the LCK we have Afreeca Freecs against Fredit Brion. Touching on AF quickly, there are no roster changes to report here in regards to the starters, so this team should start their normal 1-5. Afreeca went 5-13 in the Spring season and missed the playoffs. In fact, this matchup pits the bottom two teams from the Spring split against each other. However, we did already get a glimpse of Fredit Brion, as they swept Liiv Sandbox 2-0 in a pretty dominant fashion. I mentioned on Tuesday how Fredit had some value to them and despite their poor Spring always showed flashes (including an upset of Damwon). So while AF is a slight favorite here, I really think their prices on DraftKings make them nearly unplayable. The pricing on Dread at Jungle is, well, dreadful, as he is the most expensive JNG by $400. BRO players here are the lowest priced at some positions all while being just a +187 underdog coming off of a confidence-building debut. I think BRO is tailed here a little harder than I would like, but the pricing forces the hand a bit. Even if BRO was priced in mid-range, I would likely still grab some shares.
The other LCK match today should be the best of the slate between Damwon Kia and T1. T1 already has a game under their belt this split, with an absolute dismantling of HLE, sweeping them 2-0 and out slaying them 40-11. Both of these games finished inside 30 minutes, with game two ending in 23(!). More importantly, T1 pulled no funny business with their lineup, starting their veteran lineup of Canna/Cuzz/Faker/Teddy/Keria. I speak often to how T1 can shuffle in and out their rookies, as they have young talent at almost every position, but seeing the veteran lineup can at least give us a path to follow (until they decide to change it sporadically again). Despite the strong debut from T1, they still face Damwon here, the Spring champs this split, but more importantly the World champs last season and a second-place at MSI. Damwon went 16-2 last split and swept the season series 2-0. It won’t really matter the slate or matchup, Damwon will be the favorite, and it is always going to be tough to pick against them. Their opponents are nothing more than tournament fodder – it will pay off one or twice a year, but won’t the other 14/15 matches. I could see T1 picking a game off here, but ultimately Damwon is the side to back.
In the LPL we have two pretty evenly matchups with BLG taking on LNG and Suning taking on Team WE. Starting with BLG/LNG, we already got a glimpse of LNG as they made quick and easier work of the revamped V5 squad. BLG is primed for the debut here as a team that has made some pretty impactful roster changes. Biubiu, Zeka, and Aiming will return as the teams starting TOP/MID/BOT, but Weiwei has joined from V5 and should start while Meteor is inactive. The upgrade here is at support as ppgod has joined from V5. ppgod is a bit of a meme, as he helped bring the V5 team from winless to battling for a playoff spot, but the momentum of the V5 team fizzled last split. ppgod ranked near the middle of the LPL for KDA, but again, some could say this was a good player just stuck on a bad team. On paper, this BLG team is better than their 6-10 record, but fall into the same void as a lot of LPL teams – they can beat the teams ranked around them, but struggle against the elites of the LPL. While LNG claimed the last playoff spot last split, LNG and BLG had the same number of game wins at 16. BLG is a slight -145 favorite here, though each side deserves some ownership. This is a match I can see going to three games, as the last four times these teams have met, the series has gone to three (2-2 split, 6-5 game edge to BLG historically).
Team WE and Suning round out this slate with Sunning entering as a -137 favorite. There are no real roster changes to speak of for Suning here, besides Assum joining from Academy as the backup Bot Laner to huanfeng. Team WE has made a slight change at Mid-Lane, signing Mole and he is starting tonight over Shanks and Teacherma. Also an important note, Jiumeng as renamed to Elk, so there is not a new Bot-Laner here, just a rename. Both of these teams had strong Spring splits, with WE going 11-5 and Suning at 10-6. Team WE took the Spring matchup 2-0, but then these teams met again in the playoffs with Suning crushing WE 3-0. When I say crush, I mean it, Team WE managed five kills in game one, only two in game two, and then none in game three – ending the series with a 41-7 kill advantage and all three wins coming inside 28 minutes. The addition of Mole is interesting here and should improve this team, but it is a bit and wait and see for me how Mole functions with a stronger team around him as he is another cast-off from V5. I think Suning will carry higher ownership here, but WE has improved on paper and their Spring Playoff performance isn’t exactly who they are as a team. Suning does carry a few high prices, most notably, Bin being the most expensive Top.
$ Tier CPTN TOP JNG MID ADC SUP TEAM High Ghost (12k / 94.650) (14.4k / 94.650) bin (6.8k / 61.40) (8.1k / 61.40) Canyon (7k / 58.50) (9.2k / 58.50) ShowMaker (7.8k / 69.44) (9.5k / 69.44) Ghost (8k / 63.10) (9.6k / 63.10) BeryL (5.4k / 43.33) (7.4k / 43.33) DWG Kia (5.6k / 54.54) ( / 54.54) ShowMaker (11.7k / 104.160) (14.25k / 104.160) Khan (6.6k / 49.66) (8.3k / 49.66) Weiwei (6.8k / 66.13) (8.8k / 66.13) Angel (7.6k / 74.82) (10k / 74.82) huanfeng (7.8k / 71.38) (10.1k / 71.38) huanfeng (11.7k / 107.070) (15.15k / 107.070) Angel (11.4k / 112.230) (15k / 112.230) Medium Aiming (11.1k / 99.105) (13.35k / 99.105) Biubiu (6.2k / 58.27) (7.9k / 58.27) SofM (6.6k / 63.43) (9.7k / 63.43) Aiming (7.4k / 66.07) (8.9k / 66.07) ON (5.2k / 52.85) (7.3k / 52.85) Suning (5k / 41.72) (7.6k / 41.72) Ppgod (5k / 48.62) (7.1k / 48.62) Low Lava (9.9k / 78.270) (11.55k / 78.270) Hoya (5.2k / 37.96) (7.2k / 37.96) UmTi (5.6k / 46.85) (8k / 46.85) Mole (6.6k / 54.13) (8.6k / 54.13) Hena (6.6k / 64.47) (8.3k / 64.47) Delight (4.2k / 36.73) (6.4k / 36.73) Fredit BRION (4.4k / 37.57) (7.2k / 37.57) Mole (9.9k / 81.195) (12.9k / 81.195) Lava (6.6k / 52.18) (7.7k / 52.18) icon (6.4k / 48.66) (8.4k / 48.66)