MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for June 10, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
New York Yankees (@ Twins)
With just a six-game slate tonight, I think the Yankees against J.A. Happ ends up being a pretty chalky spot, but on paper they find themselves in a great matchup. The Yankees are always a team that stacks up well against left-handed pitching, as they can put out a pretty right-handed heavy lineup with a ton of power in it. Aside from that simple fact, J.A. Happ just hasn’t been that good recently and isn’t carrying any momentum into this matchup. Happ has allowed seven or more hits in four of his last five starts, and four or more earned runs in four of those five as well. Happ is currently allowing a 11.5% Barrel%, which is the highest of his career by over 3%. He is also allowing the highest Launch Angle and Exit Velocity of his career. Some of this can be simply attributed to him throwing a 4-seam fastball 55% of the time, and that fastball has declined a full MPH from 2020 – going from an average of 91.6 to now 90.6. Metrics wise it isn’t pretty, as Happ ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in almost every percentile ranking, including HardHit%, Barrel%, K%, Whiff%, and velocity. At this point in his career, with the lack of velocity and the lack of willingness to throw other pitches more consistently, Happ is a guy we should be targeting against weekly until we see some form of correction. Yankees hitters have seen Happ a decent amount of times, with Judge and Stanton both having some success, with two home runs each. Brett Gardner throws his name on this list as well, with two long balls in 34 at-bats. Outside of Judge, this stack won’t break the bank that much, but with righties hitting .279 and slugging .529, we will want to get as many RHB as we can here.
Kansas City Royals (@ Athletics)
As mentioned we have a smaller slate tonight, so our options here are a bit smaller and while I considered writing up the Astros here as well, I usually like to keep this article with one higher-priced stack and one lower-priced one as well. In that case, I do like the Royals today against Frankie Montas, despite Montas being on a pretty decent stretch of starts. The overall numbers aren’t anything too great, as Montas carries a 4.52 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP into this start, but he hasn’t been absolutely hit around much this year, but has also failed to net any dominant starts. Outside of his second start of the season, Montas has not allowed more than four runs in any start, though he has allowed three or more five times. There is a little bit of luck though built into these performances, as Montas has allowed six hits in each of his last three starts, and five or more hits in all of his starts on the season excluding his first one. Montas is a guy who is going to lean on his sinker, though that being said he is allowing a 30% fly ball rate in 2021, which is 9% higher than any season over the last three years. Montas is also allowing 11% barrels, which is well over his career average of 7.67%, along with him allowing 2 MPH of higher Exit Velo. Where Montas excels is his velocity, as he can touch 96 with both his sinker and 4-seamer, though both of these pitches are being hit at a .275 or better average. When it all boils down, Montas ranks in the bottom 14% for HardHit%, bottom 17% for Barrel%, bottom 20% for Avg Exit Velo, and despite the velocity still falls in the lower half for K% and Whiff%. I think Montas is a very serviceable pitcher at this level, but I also think he has played with fire more than his ERA is showing. Right-handed hitters have a small reverse split advantage here, as they are batting .40 points higher and slugging around .85 points higher. This is positive as Merrifield and Perez are still the first few guys I will target always in a Royals stack, but makes guys like Dozier, Soler, and Taylor viable as well pending them being in the lineup.