The 2021 Charles Schwab : The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 Charles Schwab! Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The 2021 Charles Schwab! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The 2021 Charles Schwab!

What a week!  Phil Mickelson wowed the golfing world by capturing another major title, this one at 50, holding off Brooks Koepka, among others to pick up the win in what was a highly entertaining tournament.  This week, we have a bit of a letdown – though the field is decent enough to attract a lot of action for this week’s contests on DraftKings.  The players head to The Colonial – which checks in as a Par 70 at just over 7200 yards, and with only two Par 5’s on the course and not too much length in play here – we’ll be looking for players that have the ability to throw darts with their approach shots, have been playing good golf heading into this one, and that have good track records at the Colonial Country Club.  Let’s have a look at some of my favourites on the board for you to consider adding to your builds this week!

The Best of the best…

  • Daniel Berger, $10,000

Ownership and prices aside – Spieth is my favourite option this week – but if you are looking for a high priced option to pivot off of him, Berger is a great choice.  He won’t check in with low ownership levels, but I like the savings that he offers compared to some of the other elite golfers this week, and I love what we have seen from him lately….outside of last week’s PGA Championship.  He picked up the win here in 2020, is an elite ball striker – and I think his game is a great fit for the course here, as we saw play out during last year’s event.  I expect him to be owned in the mid-high teens, and really, I think he should be in the low to mid 20’s, making him a very intriguing core option to consider going over-weight on for the 2021 Charles Schwab!

The Next Group

  • Abraham Ancer, $9,700

I think he may be the highest owned player this week – but to me, it’s good chalk….then again, I said the same about Joaquin Niemann last week – so there’s that…

His game is great – he’s well above average off the tee (23rd), with his approach (33rd), and putting (52nd), which checks him in as the 27th ranked golfer on tour in SG: TTG and 25th in SG: Total.  All in all, he is one of the best players in this week’s event and the only downside to me is that he’ll be chalk.  I think he backs it up though and think there is a strong case to go significantly over-weight exposure here.

  • Ryan Palmer, $8,600

He’s priced fair for this week’s tournament, and while his stats are solid – I think they are below the elite in each category that shouldn’t see him too highly owned this week.  I don’t think you’ll see single digit ownership levels on him – but I do think that there will be more popular options in his price range.  Part of this is a level of familiarity – I’ve been touting him pretty heavy for most of the 2020-21 campaign, especially in tournaments where the field isn’t elite – and it’s played out quite well.  I also think this course is a great fit for his game, and I like his chances of being in the thick of things at the Charles Schwab this weekend.

  • Emiliano Grillo, $7,900

His game was a mess a year ago, but he comes into this one playing well – making four of five cuts which includes three top 15 finishes and two top 10 showings.  He’s a little pricey compared to a few other golfers that are of similar calibre – but that should keep him from being too chalky this week.  While he was horrible at the event last year, he had three straight strong showings that included a third place showing.  He’s been throwing darts with his approach game, ranking 12th on tour in SG: APP so far this season – and while I don’t think the ability to gain strokes off the tee is a must – I’m not going to punish him for checking in ranked 25th in that stat.  The only drawback here is that I think he’ll be popular….but I’m hoping being near the $8k mark will help keep him from seeing too high ownership levels.

Don’t Forget About…

  • Denny McCarthy, $6,300

Anyone priced this low carries a fair amount of risk – but I like his chances of playing into the weekend and think that his game is a good fit for The Colonial CC.  He’s elite around the green, one of the best putters on tour and while he is a below average ball striker, the field for this one isn’t too strong, and I think he has enough to be relevant here.  Using him really opens things up for some high spends elsewhere, so I really like what including him in builds does from a roster construction standpoint.  He’ll be low owned this week, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pay off this price point at this week’s tournament.

 

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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