NHL DFS Primer | Saturday, May 1st, 2021 on DraftKings
Looking for help building line-ups for NHL DFS on DraftKings or FanDuel tonight? Let’s take a look at some of the best plays on the board for tonight’s action!
Tonight gives us a thirteen game slate, with two other games in the afternoon, putting every team in action today on Saturday. As you can imagine, on a 13 gamer, ownership levels are pretty spread out in large field MME formats, and I think a great way to approach slates like this is by not worrying too much about ownership in general. Often, late in the season, things can get pretty chalky with certain teams making playoff pushes while others are in tank mode, and with tank mode often comes the ability to get some stacks for near punt prices, making high spend stacks that much more important to target late in the season. Today, I’m going to focus on some teams that I think are in good spots tonight:
- There’s going to be four highly owned stacks: COL1, CAR 1/CAR PP1, TOR1/TOR PP1, and EDM PP1. All of them are in great spots tonight and it’s hard to argue with getting significant exposure to each of them in MME formats. If I were to rank them, I would stick with the order above – but I really don’t think you can go wrong with any of them. Those of you that have followed this piece for quite some time, you’ll know I generally don’t target Calgary with stacks – so I would fade Edmonton if I were to focus on cutting out one of them from my builds tonight.
- Another thing that I like to do on deep slates is narrow down my player field. I look for a few games that I think have a very low probability of having a line stack from it be relevant in a large field GPP winning line-up. For me tonight, four games that I think you can make a strong case to remove from your player pool are NYR/NYI, NAS/DAL, LA/ANA and STL/MIN.
- Vegas was shut out last night going up against the Coyotes, but I like tonight for a bounceback spot for them as they go up against Arizona again. For Vegas, I continue to really like the second line of theirs, which doesn’t break the bank salary wise and who have been playing great hockey of late, and Tuch sliding up to likely replace Marchessault on the line will help save a little bit of salary from what it usually costs to go stacking with VGK2.
- FLA/CHI has the potential to turn into a shootout, and I could also see this game getting lost in the weeds in terms of ownership levels. I prefer the Panthers in this one, and they have some interesting line combinations – but for me, my approach to Florida usually focuses on their top PP unit, which give you the key cogs across their top 6 (Barkov, Huberdeau, Bennett in particular). Alternatively, I don’t mind the idea of focusing on some two man stacks with FLA1 (Barkov-Duclair) and FLA2 (Bennett-Huberdeau) with Yandle as an optional third piece on the back-end.
- I like what I’ve seen from TOR2 since Galchenyuk slotted in with Tavares and Nylander. They come into this one with a xGoals% of 56, and Tavares and Nylander get a piece of the top PP unit. Focusing on a 2 or three man stack here could be a very interesting game theory pivot off of TOR1, and I like the spot for Toronto tonight.
- The Habs are looking to solidify a playoff spot, and in a plus match-up in a big game for them tonight against the Sens, I like this spot from them a lot. The Suzuki-Toffoli-Armia line was electric last game, sitting with a 76% xGoal% last game out and I like their chances of carrying that over into tonight’s game.
- I’ve touted NJ1/NJ PP1 going up against the Flyers the last two times out, and I still like the spot for NJ, even with home ice shifting to the Flyers tonight. The Hughes line has been outstanding since seeing Hughes-Sharangovich-Kuokkanen linked up with them posting an elite 65% xGoal% in just under 180 minutes of ice time as a line, which is a decent sample size. Against a Philly team that has struggled to defend, I like the idea of getting some exposure here at a reasonable price for a line stack.
This article focuses mainly on stacking – if you want to see my favourite one-off plays, please look out for the NHL Daily Cheat Sheet that will be out a little later on this afternoon!