DraftKings Xfinity NASCAR DFS – Ag-Pro 300 – April 24, 2021

DraftKings Xfinity NASCAR DFS – Ag-Pro 300 – April 24, 2021

Core Plays

Justin Haley – DK: $9,200 – Starting 5th

Haley doesn’t yet have a top-five finish on the season, but he does have five top-ten finishes in his seven races this year. Haley hasn’t led any laps over the last three races, but he has had at least one fastest lap in every race this year and also currently sits fourth in the points standings. This week it is the Talladega Superspeedway, a 2.66-mile oval that is the longest oval on the circuit. It is also a track that can paint some chaos, as drivers can run three to four wide at some of the fastest speeds on the year – we can likely expect more than a handful of cautions as a Cup race usually averages around 6.5. We aren’t going to necessarily stick to the “stack the back” theory of Daytona, but this is definitely a week of GPP lineups and not one where you are going to be able to but abrupt confidence in any one guy. We also aren’t likely to get one guy who will dominate this race, as lead changes happen frequently here. All that being said, I have to ride the hot hand of Haley at Talladega as he has taken the last two checkered flags here. In June of 2020, Haley started on the Pole and took the checkered flag (despite just leading 16 total laps). In October, Haley started eighth and also took the checkered flag, while leading just two laps. In his three total races here, Haley has an average finish of third (with his other finish being a seventh-place finish in April of 2019). This is clearly a track that Haley is comfortable at, and with his price being at just $9,200 placing your faith in him offers near similar upside to guys priced above him.

Caesar Bacarella – DK: $6,800 – Starting 28th

We don’t see Bacarella a ton in the Xfinity Series as he is just a part-time driver, but when we do we usually see him at Superspeedways, as his last three races run in the Xfinity Series have been at Talladega and Daytona. Truthfully, we do not have a ton of data here and maybe this is just a gut call, but we know Bacarella is at least comfortable at these tracks as in his last two races he has finishes of 12 and 14. Last season at Talladega, Bacarella started 17th and finished 17th in the June race and followed that up with a 33rd position start and a 14th place finish in the October race. So the simple math here is in two career starts at Talladega, Bacarella has an average starting position of 25th and an average finishing position of 15th. Bacarella also ran Daytona this year and with a 38th position start carved out a 12th place finish. Racing at these 2.5-mile superspeedways are not a “comfortable” track for many, but it seems Bacarella thrives at them and that level of comfort is a confidence boost when translating it to the DFS game.

Cheat Sheet

$ TierD
High
AJ Allmendinger
(10.6k / 46.72)
Justin Allgaier
(10.4k / 44.72)
Austin Cindric
(9.6k / 35.82)
Justin Haley
(9.2k / 33.92)
Medium
Riley Herbst
(8.8k / 37.38)
Jason White
(8.4k / 38.46)
Ty Dillon
(7.9k / 29.17)
Landon Cassill
(7.1k / 32.19)
Caesar Bacarella
(6.8k / 20.61)
Low
Jesse Little
(5.6k / 24.29)
Gray Gaulding
(5.3k / 21.56)

About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports Veteran dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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