MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for April 8, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
Colorado Rockies (vs Arizona)
I will be the first to admit when I have a rough day and Wednesday’s two stacking suggestions fell very flat. The Blue Jays made Kyle Gibson look like a Cy Young candidate (don’t go back and read where I said there wasn’t a world where that would happen) and the Twins bats fell cold as Boyd was able to live down in the zone and showed some big flashes once again fully healthy. It’s a bit of a current issue with MLB DFS is 2020 did not give us a reliable data pool and the things that can change between 2019 and now is obviously a ton. So while we keep making our best-educated guesses, we really are just awaiting the sweet sweet data that can actually give us a bit more of a concrete feeling of what is going on. Maybe this is us learning together, as I have been relying heavily on 2020 stats to influence some 2021 decisions – normally, mixing these with Spring performances can at least paint a bit of a picture – those pictures so far this year have been like a five-year-old finger painting. So for this one I am just putting my trust in a strong matchup with a high total, in a vulnerable ballpark. It goes without saying that Coors Field is usually chalk, but it is important to note that Ryan McMahon the other night, when he hit three home runs, was just 10% owned. Across the board, Coors ownership is actually down. Merrill Kelly takes the mound for his second start of the season after allowing five hits and three earned over four innings in his first start of the year against the Padres. Kelly is not a pitcher who is going to over-power you, his fastball velocity ranked in the bottom 30% of the league last season. In fact, he ranked near the bottom third in a lot of categories and in the bottom 10% of missing barrels, and bottom 5% in exit velocity. In layman’s terms, when people hit Kelly, they have been able to hit him hard. The splits are pretty equal here, with LHH hitting about .16 points higher, but RHH slugging .30 points higher – there isn’t a bunch of career matchups here, but Trevor Story and Ryan McMahon have taken him deep in limited at-bats against. The data here suggest that Merrill Kelly is a fringe back-end of the rotation starter who can absolutely be mashed with hard contact if it is being made. DraftKings once again didn’t really price up the bats here, as Story and Blackmon come in at $5,100 and $5,100 but outside of McMahon at $4,500 every other Rockies potential starter falls under $4,000.
New York Mets (vs Miami)
When it just comes down to a pure lop-sided matchup on paper I think we have one here as the Mets face Marlins near rookie pitcher Nick Neidert. Neidert has just four major league appearances, all coming in relief last season. In those four appearances, Neidert mostly worked in long-relief, pitching 8.1 total innings allowing 11 hits and four earned runs. He did post some high strikeout numbers though, punching out 15 in just those 8.1. Neidert had a decent Spring, allowing four earned and 11 hits over 12.2 innings and having a WHIP of just 1.105. In nine starts at AAA for the Marlins, Neidert had an ERA of 5.05. All-in-all here, we are looking at a guy who is making his first major league start and someone who posted pretty mediocre numbers the last time he managed to be a starter. The pitch selection from Neidert is also interesting here, as he throws his four-seam fastball 60% of the time. We are cherry-picking old stats here, but really it is all we have to go off of – the limited sample in 2020, LHH had four hits in ten at-bats. There is longer-term potential with Neidert here, but I really don’t love this opening matchup he has against the Mets. The Mets can trot out several prominent left-handed bats here in Alonso, Nimmo, Dom Smith, and Conforto. The biggest reason I love the Mets on this slate is their pricing really isn’t too aggressive. Alonso and Lindor are both under $5,000 while they probably shouldn’t be. Conforto at $3,600 feels a bit like a joke and Nimmo and McNeil are somehow even lower than that. When it comes to a primary stack, I love the upside of the Mets here, but as a secondary stack, Conforto and Nimmo at just a combined $7,000 feels really good.