Fight Study (3/27/21)
In the only women’s contest of the evening, Miranda Maverick will look to maintain her win streak against Gillian Robertson in a flyweight bout on Saturday. Robertson did lose her last time out and Maverick is the betting favorite in this matchup. Maverick is the more expensive fighter in DFS contests and she is priced at $8,800 on DraftKings and $16 on Fanduel. Robertson can be put into lineups for $7,400 and $13 respectively. This fight is scheduled for 3 rounds and it is a small -140 favorite to be determined by the judges’ scorecards.
Maverick secured a win over Liana Jojua in her UFC debut last October when the doctor stopped the fight after the first round. That was her first win by KO/TKO. She is 8-2 overall with 5 submission victories and 2 decision wins also to her credit. She must look to win this fight on her feet as her opponent is one of the best submission specialists in the division. The hype around Maverick is growing and with good reason. At just 23-years-old, she has the potential to be a contender, and she has plenty of time to realize that potential. If she continues to improve her stand-up, the sky is the limit for her as her submission game is already at a high level. A win over Robertson would immediately establish her as a fighter who deserves consideration in the contender rankings.
Robertson is currently the 15th ranked contender in the division and a win on Saturday would likely move her higher. She is 9-5 overall with 1 win by KO/TKO, 6 wins by submission and 2 wins by decision. She is 6-3 in the UFC and has tallied 5 finishes in her 6 wins. With 4 submission wins at the UFC level, she is easily one of the most dangerous grapplers in the flyweight division. She has steadily improved her stand-up as well and can hold her own against most fighters in the division. Still, against Maverick she should look to take this fight to the mat where I expect she will have the grappling advantage. Maverick is by no means an easy sub, however, and Robertson must be on her game to get a submission in this one.
I am curious to see if Maverick will be willing to engage with Robertson on the ground. She has yet to face a grappler of Robertson’s skill level, and I believe it would be a mistake for her to engage Robertson on the ground. Robertson has a takedown success rate of 46%, however, and willing or not, she may be able to take Maverick down. If Robertson is able to get Maverick down with time to work with, I would not be surprised at all to see her secure a rear-naked choke. If this fight stays above ground, however, I expect Maverick to have the edge. Still, the very threat of Robertson’s ground game may serve to nullify Maverick’s advantage on the feet. Robertson has been submitted once in her career, but I don’t anticipate her giving up her second to Maverick.
In DFS contests, I believe Robertson is a very live dog in this fight. Her grappling is very high level and if Maverick is not very cautious, I can see an upset happening. I make this fight much closer than the odds would indicate, and I believe Robertson should not only be competitive on her feet but will have a clear advantage on the ground. For these reasons, I like Robertson as solid underdog play in both cash lineups and GPP. I think her odds of getting a finish are slightly better than Maverick’s, and I maker her chances of winning about equal. Maverick has all the potential in the world, but until she can prove it against a fighter of Robertson’s abilities, I won’t assume she should be favored against her.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 260 on March 27.
UFC 260: FIGHT #4, Maverick vs Robertson
For Fight Study on UFC 260: FIGHT #3, Almeida vs O’Malley, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 260: FIGHT #5, Worthy vs Mullarkey, click HERE.