DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Food City Dirt Race – March 28, 2021
Before we start, and you likely saw it in the race name, but this race is on dirt. That’s right, the .533 mile track at Bristol has been converted to a full dirt track for this race – the first one since 1970. So, while we have data on racers at Bristol, we really don’t have any data on racers on dirt, at Bristol. This is going to make this week pretty GPP for us, as I personally am expecting some chaos. We were supposed to have heat qualifying for this race, but unfortunately it was rained out.
Christopher Bell – DK: $11,000 | FD: $13,500 – Starting 15th
Kyle Larson held the spot as my core play until an engine issued caused him to swap out his engine, promptly moving Larson’s car to the back of the field. After being assigned the pole position, starting dead last is going to be quite the feat to reclaim the front. Larson is still an absolute beast on dirt and it would not surprise me at all to see him climb to the front of the pack, but the truth is we are losing out on a lot of important dominator points here that Larson would have grabbed for laps led. This is going to be a play that starts the day off negative for us and with this sky-high price it makes it very very hard to see him fall in line as the optimal play. There is a world where it happens but it is slim. Larson looked great in practice, posting several fastest times. Ultimately, this is the omega GPP play, but starting dead last and being scored from first is quite the feat no matter who you are or what your specialty is. That being said, Larson should still be able to grab fastest laps and with the competition cautions laid out the way they are and no races off of pit road, Larson should still be considered. However, if the logistics here combined with the price scare you, Christopher Bell’s resume offers us just as much upside.
Therefore, we shift our focus to the next best on dirt option in Christopher Bell. Bell, like Larson, also has a Truck Series win at Eldora Speedway, which most will tell you is the closest possible comparison to Bristol. Bell is a three-time Chili Bowl National winner, repeating from 2017-2019 (this is a dirt track race with midget cars). Bell actually replaced Kyle Larson in 2013 when he joined Keith Kunz Motorsports. Bell currently holds the second-best odds in this field to take the checkered flag and posted the second-fastest practice time in their first practice session.
Chris Windom – DK: $7,400 | FD: $6,500 – Starting 36th
Chris Windom is probably not a name you know if you don’t expand your racing ranks outside of the NASCAR circuit, but while this is his first career Cup start, Windom has a very established history of success. Windom was only the seventh driver in US Auto History to complete the racing triple crown, which is an overall championship in Midget, Spring, and Silver Crown racing. For me, I think drivers with extensive dirt track experience are my preferred plays for value even if we don’t know much about them. Windom offers us a cheap price this week with room to grab some differential. Over the two practice sessions, Windom didn’t wow us, but he did post the 28th fastest in practice session two. I still believe this race is going to be full of some chaos, with a good chunk of this field with limited dirt experience or a very large gap in their dirt races. When it comes to a guy like Windom, who has made his entire career on dirt, the risk here is balanced with experience. The biggest issue I have here is the more experienced teams, regardless of the driver’s dirt pedigree, are still going to have an edge on general car tuning here for Bristol in itself. The dirt is one thing, but driving at Bristol is a whole task in itself. This is not an all-in play for me this week, but this is still an up and coming driver, who has won at almost every level he has competed at. Don’t expect a shot at a win, but splitting his starting spot in half is realistic.
$ Tier D High Kyle Larson (12k / 40.18) (14k / 40.18) Christopher Bell (11k / 41.53) (13.5k / 41.53) Chase Briscoe (9.9k / 57.62) (9.5k / 57.62) Austin Dillon (9.7k / 34.70) (10k / 34.70) Medium Ryan Blaney (9.3k / 36.89) (12.5k / 36.89) Joey Logano (8.3k / 41.26) (11k / 41.26) Alex Bowman (7.7k / 31.41) (8.2k / 31.41) Chris Windom (7.4k / 31.01) (6.5k / 31.01) Low Mike Marlar (7.2k / 31.65) (3k / 31.65) Shane Golobic (6.8k / 24.55) (5.5k / 24.55) Michael McDowell (5.2k / 20.82) (3k / 20.82)