Welcome to the NBA Rundown for DraftKings DFS contests on Monday, February 15, 2021.
We have a solid 7 game slate on DraftKings today (Feb 15, 2021).
We’re here to break down the slate with some of our top plays at each key position, anchoring players in the first part of their eligible slots.
Kyrie Irving & James Harden – I’ve said it here before with Kevin Durant out, and it’s important that we draw attention to it once again. Kyrie is actually the usage rate beneficiary that you want to have in your lineup (+4.4%) vs Harden (+2.3%) at 33.5% and 27.6% respectively. Irving even averages a higher FP/36 MIN (52.59 vs 49.13) in the 5 games that Durant’s missed, and the slate-best 237.5 game total (-4 spread for BKN) make them both highly attractive here. I’d prefer Irving for nearly $2K less, but both are great plays with 6+ ROI upside.
Lou Williams – If both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George need to miss this one again, Williams is just about as elite as it gets tonight. Even though this is against the Heat who do a nice job defensively, he played 32 minutes and led the offense with a 36.3% usage rate against the Cavs, dropping a 30 point and 10 assist game (49 DKP). If that situation presents itself again today with Leonard and George out, a $6,400 price tag will be worth every penny.
Kendrick Nunn – Pivoting down a bit to $5,600, Nunn makes for a solid value play with Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley out for the Heat. He’s scored at least 34 fantasy points in 2 straight games while playing 37.5 MPG in that time, and has a pretty clear pay to 34+ minutes in this one, too.
Bradley Beal – The price on Beal has come down quite a nice level of late, even though we’ve seen him average 49.8 DKP in his last 3 games (5.6x ROI at this salary). A game against the Rockets should prove to be nice and productive, as he dropped 45.25 DKP against them when they last met for good measure. He’s a usage and minutes beast, and even though this is a B2B, he generally thrives in the split regardless.
Andrew Wiggins – He’s playing some of his best basketball for the Warriors right now, and is averaging 31.1 DKP (better than his 31.0 season long numbers) in his last week of work. He tends to get up nicely for the team that drafted him a handful of years ago, and 33-37 fantasy points aren’t crazy to expect here on a slate where the Warriors should have no problem winning this one at home. I prefer him for cash games overall, though.
Joe Ingles – He’s got a decent floor with Mike Conley out as he tends to handle the ball quite a bit, but the ceiling can be a little more capped while the price is almost at $6,000. He is averaging 33.9 DKP in his last 3 games however, and with this being his fourth straight at home and with a high projected team total – he is in a good spot to have one of his great games where 35+ points is within reach. That makes him an appealing GPP play tonight.
Kelly Oubre Jr – He’s playing even better basketball than Wiggins right now and remains close in the pricing department. He does far more than just score (especially compared to Wiggins in that regard), and is averaging over 35 FPPG in his last 4, not scoring less than 30 in that span. This is a wonderful matchup where he should absolutely thrive, and makes for one of the best overall mid-range plays on the slate.
Marcus Morris – Similar to Lou Williams, I’m wanting some Morris exposure if both Leonard and George are out once again for the Clippers. He played 26 minutes off the bench last night with a nice 27.9% usage rate, scoring 39.5 DKP in that time on 7 of 14 shooting to go along with 6 boards and 3 steals+blocks. Keep a close eye on the injury news throughout the day before getting him active, though.
Eric Paschall – Keep him in your sights just in case they decide to give Green a game off in light of the injury he sustained in Saturday’s game against the Nets. Even though Curry, Wiggins and Oubre are the biggest usage beneficiaries with Green off the floor (in that order), Paschall has a 23.9% usage rate in the split and averages just shy of 33 DKP per 36 minutes as well. He has games of 27 and 20 DKP in 2 of his last 3 games (Paschall), and could be a source of value at $3,700 if it looks like his playing time will get a nice little boost.
Mike Scott – This is going off the board a little bit, but at $3K if Joel Embiid is out – you have to get him into your lineups. He has a +15.6% usage rate delta with Embiid off the floor this year (albeit just one full game) but he’s back and healthy so will be used in the rotation nonetheless. His presence decreases the importance of Dwight Howard overall, and I expect his ownership level will be incredibly miniscule despite reason for 20-25 FP optimism if The Process is sidelined.
Tobias Harris – Amongst the regulars for Philly, Harris is actually a monster in games that Embiid is off the floor (+6.1% usage at 29.6% to lead the team). He’s averaging just shy of 45 FP per 36 minutes in the split, chipping in nicely with double digit rebound and assists share, too. He’s a premium PF play today if Embiid is out.
Nerlens Noel – He should be among the most popular plays on the slate for the $4,400 price tag, as Mitchell Robinson just went under the knife and Noel jumped into the 30+ MPG territory in his absence. He played 32 minutes against the Rockets over the weekend with the starting unit, and in a matchup with the Hawks who are generous to opposing bigs fantasy-wise, he should have zero problem paying of the salary with a minimum of a 5x ROI.
Serge Ibaka – I’m foregoing the mentions of Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan who are solid values (especially if Embiid is out for Howard’s sake), and focusing on another Clipper who has an elite level of upside if George and Leonard miss this one. He had 44.25 DKP in 29 minutes (25.8% usage) last night, and although his 30+ MPG nights appear behind him, the upside is fantastic should the overall opportunity present itself in a similar fashion here. At $5K on the nose, he could easily deliver a 5.5x ROI.