DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Daytona 500 – February 14, 2021
First off, welcome back to a new season of Xfinity and Cup coverage here at FantasyCruncher. While all of our content here is free, we also offer projections and our optimizer – you can check out our pricing here and there really is a plan to fit every kind of budget. If there is a race on DraftKings or FanDuel, we will provide projections and the optimizer for it – this includes Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series races. But if you are just a content guy, no worries, as stated all content on FantasyCruncher is free for our readers. With that being said, most articles here will feature two core plays – one high priced stud and then one guy to save some money on. At the end of this post, you will find my cheat sheet that will show the core drivers in my player pool.
Martin Truex – DK: $9,300 | FD: $9,300 – Starting 26th
This top tier of drivers this week is going to be pretty variable with several top names starting further back in the field which increases their ownership. These names are Brad Keselowski starting 24th, Denny Hamlin starting 25th and Martin Truex starting 26th. Truex finished 32nd at this race a year ago but was knocked out with an accident on lap 184 in a crash that was not his fault – just a victim of the track. In six races at Daytona since February of 2018, Truex has two top-five finishes and 38 laps led. These numbers aren’t great on paper, but with all things considered on how this race features several wrecks you’re going to struggle to find anyone who has been absolutely dominant here. Denny Hamlin is probably my favorite overall driver in this field, but with the $1,100 pricing difference, I think Truex offers us a little more flexibility. That being said, with the theory of stacking the back, Hamlin and Truex won’t be too hard to fit into the same lineup. Truex had a strong showing in the Duel on Thursday night, leading on the final lap before falling back a bit.
UPDATE: Truex appears to be headed to the rear for this race due to replacing an air cooler on their car. Ultimately, I don’t think this changes a whole lot since we are still looking for Truex to climb well past 26th and he will certainly have the car to do so. I do think Hamlin will become slightly higher owned for me now, but it doesn’t change much with Truex.
Austin Cindric – DK: $6,100 | FD: $6,200 – Starting 39th
Stacking the back is going to be a popular strategy here, especially at a high variance track like Daytona. 23 cars finished last season year and Cindric’s odds to win this race actually aren’t too bad in a vacuum. Cindric sits at 77-1 to win this race, which is actually the 25th best odds in the 40 car field. I know these odds aren’t actually “great”, but when you get to the back of the field and realistic options who could win this race, Cindric fits the bill. Cindric had an incredible 2020 Xfinity season with six wins in 33 races including a nine-race stretch of top five or better finishes. Cindric has six races at Daytona, with three finishes inside the top ten. The simple truth here is we are going to want to focus on cars from the back here and when it comes to a cheap price and far back starting position, Cindric covers both of those things for us. The other drivers in this range just don’t make much sense (Preece at 11, Suarez at 15). I think Cindric has a ton of talent and should have no issue holding his own here.
$ Tier D High Denny Hamlin (10.4k / 73.62) (14k / 73.62) Chase Elliott (10.3k / 55.30) (13.5k / 55.30) Brad Keselowski (10.1k / 70.74) (12.5k / 70.74) Martin Truex (9.3k / 61.91) (9.3k / 61.91) Medium Kurt Busch (8.8k / 47.20) (9k / 47.20) Matt DiBenedetto (7.9k / 25.47) (8.2k / 25.47) Ross Chastain (7.8k / 31.11) (7.5k / 31.11) Erik Jones (7.3k / 40.10) (6k / 40.10) Cole Custer (6.7k / 25.15) (7k / 25.15) Low Austin Cindric (6.1k / 42.45) (6.2k / 42.45) Kaz Grala (4.9k / 35.40) (4.5k / 35.40)