Welcome to the NBA Rundown for DraftKings contests on Wednesday, January 13, 2021.
We have a seven-game slate on tap for us this evening. In this article, we will be breaking down some of our favorite plays on the slate at their positions. Please note that players on DraftKings have multi-position eligibility. Remember to always keep your eye on the news as the day progresses as NBA news changes the slate frequently.
Luka Doncic ($10,800) – The Mavericks are still short-handed here as Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson, Doran Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Dwight Powell all remain out for the Mavericks. That is three/four usual starters for this team, so it just puts more of the offensive load on Doncic, for better or for worse. The Mavs had their game on Monday postponed, so at least we are getting Doncic fresh here. His last game played was on 1/9 against the Magic in a 14 point win in which Doncic had a 36% usage rate, triple-doubling with 20/11/10. We get Doncic at a $200 price decrease as well, leaving Doncic the highest ceiling option on this slate.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,100) – With Lonzo Ball out tonight and Eric Bledsoe questionable, Alexander-Walker should either grab the start at point guard tonight or be the first rotational piece there. The minutes have been better recently, playing 27 and 15 respectively in his last two contests, with usage rates over 20% in each. Alexander-Walker’s usage rate when on the floor has actually been very high all season, topping 30% three times. The shooting efficiency has been average at 38%, though it could certainly be better. Regardless, at this low of a price, Alexander-Walker should end up being the chalk value of the slate.
CJ McCollum ($8,600) – McCollum is quietly putting together an All-Star season and he isn’t a name I see hyped very much. On the year, McCollum is averaging 28/4/5 and 47 fantasy points per game while shooting nearly 50% from the field. McCollum has returned 5x value in eight of his last nine games and has scored 40 or more fantasy points in seven of his last nine. The Blazers hold a 119 point team total tonight against the Kings in what is the highest projected total on the slate. These teams met just four days ago, with McCollum scoring 37 points in 29 minutes.
Delon Wright ($5,000) – I like this play way more if Derrick Rose were to miss, but I don’t think that happens as he is now listed as probable. However, Wright has been the main benefactor of the injury to Killian Hayes, playing 34 and 36 minutes in his last two games. Wright carries risk every night as the Pistons rotation has been sloppy and last time out against the Bucks Wright played just 10 minutes. However using the last two games as a guide, we should see Wright start as he has in the last three games. Wright has games of 5.3x and 7.2x over his last two.
Brandon Ingram ($8,500) – Without Lonzo Ball, we are going to see some of his minutes and usage shift around the Pelicans offense. Guys like Eric Bledsoe (if he plays) and Josh Hart should see a small uptick in minutes placing them in play, but Brandon Ingram should also see an increase as with no Lonzo on the court, Ingram is averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute. Assuming Ingram plays his normal 36 minutes, this places Ingram in the upper 40’s for fantasy production tonight with what I view as a ceiling higher than that.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,900) – As mentioned above, the Mavericks are very short-handed, leading to massive minutes for the guys available to play. It was Doncic, Burke, and Hardaway Jr. carrying the load for the Mavs last game out and not much has changed here as the Mavericks are still incredibly short-handed. There is a chance today’s game is also PPD, but that is not something that I have the knowledge of as of yet. Hardaway Jr. played 40 minutes last game out with a 30% usage, scoring 36 points to go along with five rebounds and two assists.
Power Forward / Center
Mitchell Robinson ($5,800) – The center position is not one I love tonight as there are a lot of questionable players and the higher dollar guys don’t see worth the price. I do like Zion Williamson, but I am sparing this article from being a full-on Pelicans write-up. All that being said, I likely am saving at the center position tonight, and Mitchell Robinson, though a volatile player, has been consistent as of late and still carries a cheap price tag. The minutes have been there for Robinson, averaging 30 a game, but 33, 34, and 41 in three of his last four. I think people forget that Mitchell Robinson is still just 21 years old and is growing into the league. Tonight’s matchup with Brooklyn is an average one for centers, as they allow 113 points per game and rank near the middle in rebounding rate. This is just a pricing play for me on a night where the center position is dominated by questionable tags.
Kyle Kuzma ($5,600) – This can be thrown out the door if Anthony Davis plays tonight, but after injuring his toe in last night’s game and it being a back-to-back, I think the Lakers have more of a reason to sit Davis than not. In the nine games that Kuzma has played that Davis has missed since last season, Kuzma is averaging 18.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Kuzma has at least 25 fantasy points in six of those nine games. The Thunder is also an elite match-up for Kuzma as they have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to power forwards this season.
Enes Kanter ($4,800) – Jusuf Nurkic is a question mark for tonight’s game and if he misses out Kanter would be a player that I am going to have high exposure to. Kanter would likely start in Nurkic places if he is out and play minutes in the high 20’s to low 30’s. A boost in minutes would be huge for a player like Kanter as Kanter always produces when on the court. This season Kanter is averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute and has produced at least 21 fantasy points in all but two of his games this season despite only averaging 19 minutes a game. The Kings also profile as an excellent match-up for Kanter as they rank in the bottom five in defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game to centers.