Welcome to the NBA Rundown for DraftKings & FanDuel contests on Sunday, January 10, 2021.
We have a solid 6 game slate on both main sites today (Jan 10, 2021). I always love ones of this size, especially for GPP purposes where we can really hone in on a tighter player pool.
We’re here to break down the slate with some of our top plays at each key position, using the FanDuel positions as our default for placement within the column.
John Wall vs LAL – While this isn’t the easiest game on paper positionally for Wall, his pricing across the industry continues to be too low for a guy of his abilities. He sports a very solid 28.1% usage rate on the year and a 24.9% assist share, too across his first 5 games. Prior to a blowout win on Friday, he had at least 43 FD points in 3 of his 4 games while playing big minutes with excellent usage. That should come back to fruition tonight where a 38-43 point total is a realistic projection.
Stephen Curry vs TOR – He owns the 4th best usage rate in the NBA so far this year (33.6%) and a ridiculous 63.2% TS% to go along with a ridiculous 36.9% assist%. The Raptors have been very generous to opposing guards so far this year, making this arguably the best DvP situation to take advantage of here given we know Curry’s role will be dominant on the ball. If paying up here, he’s an elite choice on either site.
Fred VanVleet @ GSW – This could be the VanVleet and Curry show here as both guards for their respective teams can light everything up from deep. Well, with Freddy’s near 60% TS% on the year, 24.3% usage, 28.4% assist% and a great game for exposure, I’m looking at him wherever he’s fairly priced as a high-end play slotted in at the upper-middle territory in terms of salary.
Dejounte Murray @ MIN – I’m surprised he’s as cheap as he is on both sites given how well he played against MIN in the first part of the back to back set (48.8 FP). Despite poor efficiency from the field at times, his minutes are there right now, the usage in the low 20s is consistent, and he accrues fantasy points all over the place thanks to strong rebounding and hustle stat skills for the position. He’s a premium mid-range play here.
Caris LeVert vs OKC – Should we see Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving sit this one out (Irving is likely to miss this one in that regard), LeVert enters the fold as a high-end option against the Thunder. Although he has back to back games over the 50 FP mark, that could (and should) probably bump down to the lower 40s here as usage will take a hit with Durant returning. Even with just Irving off the floor, LeVert sports a 36.6% usage rate (+5.2% in the split) which is a hair behind Durant’s 39.1% (same split) and averages over 51 DKP per 36 minutes. Make sure one of these guys are out before firing him up, especially since he’s seen a salary jump.
Tyler Herro @ BOS – A significant mis-pricing effort for FD purposes here, so that’s really the only spot I’d want to play him. He’s seeing strong minutes right now and is coming off an elite game with 41.8 FP on 28.6% usage. He struggled vs BOS last time out though, so I’d exclusively keep him to GPPs on FD for that reason given we know how tough they can be defensively.
DeMar DeRozan @ MIN – Another guy – just like Murray – who should be more expensive on the B2B in the same matchup. However, double-D is very reasonably priced across the industry here and needs serious attention on this slate. He is a consistent high minute getter with a high-20s usage rate most nights, and in a matchup where there’s a lot of opportunity for him to dominate, he should see a 25%+ usage rate mark once again. This is a very positive DvP situation, and I’d be shocked if we didn’t see a minimum of 37 fantasy points from him tonight.
Jaylen Brown vs MIA – Brown is set the lead the Celtics tonight with Jayson Tatum expected out. He has a 32.8% usage rate in the split without Tatum this year, good for over 44 fantasy points per 36 minutes. I don’t love how pricey he’s become on DK (which is where I’d probably fade him in GPPs), but there’s still value on FD against MIA who is actually below average defensively against opposing Fs.
Jimmy Butler @ BOS – An elite value on DK today, Butler lines up very well here as a high-end option at the position (PG/SF) for just $7,300. He’s been a little banged up this year but has posted 2 straight high minute games in a row now including one with 33 minutes and nearly 35% usage against the Celtics (48.1 FP). Get him active on DK across the board and don’t be shy to fire him up on FD, too.
Chris Boucher @ GSW & Pascal Siakam @ GSW – Both of these guys have really started to come alive of late for the Raptors and are forcing Nick Nurse’s hand (in Boucher’s case) to play more minutes. Boucher’s bumped up over $7K on FD but remains under $6K on DK where he’s a great GPP target with PF/C eligibility. Meanwhile Siakam is fairly priced on both sites. With a game that should have a total over 230 when all is said and done, these bigs can put on a show for the Raptors and complement what should be a VanVleet-heavy game on offense. I don’t feel that playing both is absolutely necessary as their usage tends to trade off with one another when sharing the court, but the upside is certainly there for having them active in your player pool with appropriate filters.
Christian Wood vs LAL – The return of Wood to the starting lineup was a welcomed sight on Friday night where we saw another massive fantasy game from him (48 FP in just 27 minutes). This was a blowout affair for HOU – but the fate will not be the same tonight with the Lakers in tow. It’s still great to see that Boogie Cousins will remain with the second unit while Wood is healthy, and given he’s very fairly priced on both sites for the kind of floor/ceiling combo he brings to the table – he needs to be a highly owned commodity tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns vs SAS – I don’t see the need to pay all the way up for Nikola Jokic here (esp on FD for over $11K), but Towns against the Spurs is not that much of a stretch. He returned in a big way after missing just about 2 full weeks with 37 minutes, 24.6% usage and 52.6 FP against the Spurs last night. The one concern would be a decreased number of minutes in a B2B given the focus on keeping the wrist healthy, but if he’s going to get a full set of minutes, there’s no reason to shy away.
Mitchell Robinson vs DEN – The last time Robinson faced off against a tough, dominant big (Rudy Gobert), he finished with a season high in minutes (41) and fantasy points (40.8) with big rebound and block contributions. Well, to help keep Jokic at bay here, he should be called on for 30+ minutes and will use his athleticism to be very competitive down low defensively and on the glass. A low-30s fantasy point night is pretty easy to project here for a guy who is very fairly priced on both sites.
Al Horford @ BKN – I’m expecting Towns, Robinson, Jokic and probably even Allen to get most of the ownership on the slate. However it’s wise to keep Horford in the player pool mix on FD for GPPs given he should be sub-10% owned and has every opportunity to deliver a 30 point night here (which would threaten for 6.0x value). He consistently plays nearly 30 minutes a night for the Thunder, and will line up against Jarrett Allen who can really bring a high energy style of play for the Nets where they’ll need the veteran C to keep him at bay. Horford generally isn’t a high usage guy anymore, but consistently will reach the high-teens and will be leaned on in what should be a tougher night against the Nets. There really isn’t anything sexy about him here other than feeling his role and contributions should play nicely as a contrarian option on FD for GPP purposes.