Welcome to Chalk Talk – an article dedicated to deep diving the slates projected highest owned players.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is considered a hot, cold, or neutral option for this week.
As a note, if I am hot on a player it means I will likely have ownership over the projected amount. Cold means I will have ownership considerably lower than the projected amount, while neutral means I am around the projected amount.
FanDuel: Deshaun Watson (10.9%) | DraftKings: Deshaun Watson (8.8%)
Verdict: Neutral – 17 weeks into the season we know what we are getting with Deshaun Watson. 12 of Watson’s 15 games played on the season have cracked 20 fantasy points and he is producing with both his arm and legs. Watson did have an injury scare last week but is said to be a non-issue. I personally have some concerns about paying up for a quarterback in a meaningless game, and there really isn’t a chalky option on this slate as we can see Watson at sub 10% here. This week is going to be messy and very spread out but if you are operating under the guise that Watson plays the entire game, then he has a great home matchup against a Titans defense that has been shaky at best all season, but over shadowed by a strong offense. The Titans are allowing 280 yards passing per game and 26 points and Watson shredded them for 335 yards and four touchdowns back in week six.
FanDuel: Alexander Mattison (32.4%) | DraftKings: Derrick Henry (20.4%)
Verdict: Cold/Hot – I wanted to mark Mattison as a cold play, but due to his $5,000 price tag on FanDuel it is really hard to ignore his value. This is only accelerated by a matchup with the Lions who boast the NFL’s worst defense. However, Mattison hasn’t seen much action of late, having only seven total carries over his last four games active. Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah should also be involved as Mattison is working back from a concussion. I really do not excpect to see a massive bellcow workload here and though the price keeps me locked in on him a little bit, I think this might be a fade worth exploring.
As for Derrick Henry, like most weeks, this is the highest ceiling running back on the slate and since we should have plenty of places to save money, the high price tag isn’t a deterrent for us. The Texans defense is allowing 151 rush yards a game and rank in the bottom five of almost all defensive categories. The Titans still have plenty to play for here so there won’t be any taking the foot off the gas. Henry torched the Texans for 212 yards and two touchdowns last time they met.
FanDuel: Davante Adams (27.6%) | DraftKings: Davante Adams (18%)
Verdict: Hot – As stated with Derrick Henry, we don’t need to shy away from the expensive options this week as there is plenty of value to round out or rosters. The Packers are playing for the number one seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Outside of a quiet 11.20 fantasy point performance against Carolina, Adams has averaged near 30 fantasy points on the season. Adams hasn’t fallen below eight targets all season and has 12 or more in half of his games played this year. The Packers need a win to clinch the top seed in the NFC, so there is plenty to play for here for the Packers. The last time these teams met, Adams was held in a check a bit, but still caught six passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. The game was also a blowout so he wasn’t needed as much. This is subsequently the highest floor and ceiling play on this slate.
FanDuel: George Kittle (14.6%) | DraftKings: Darren Waller (9.6%)
Verdict: Neutral – Two players on teams with nothing really to play for besides pride is always an awkward position to make an important fantasy call with. The Niners should take it easy with Kittle as he is coming back from a foot injury – though a depleted wideout corp this week could thrust him into higher usage if the Niners coaching staff allows it. Darren Waller enters week 17 with his highest price of the season at $7,100. While getting Waller at sub 10% is nice, we may need to use this position for savings rather than paying up. Regardless of your decision, you won’t be equalling a large part of the field.
FanDuel: Ravens (10.4%) | DraftKings: Browns (12%)
Verdict: Cold/Hot – Like I say most weeks, I have no issues with paying up for the Ravens, but I just don’t think it is necessary this week. There are several matchups on the board this week that are cheaper with similar upside like the Seahawks against the Niners, Cardinals and Rams, and the… Cleveland Browns, who I am high on this week. The Browns face the Steelers who are starting Mason Rudolph and have just a 16.5 team total. You can get the Browns for $4,100 on Fanduel and $2,500 on DraftKings, making them an outrageous value.