Fight Study – December 12, 2020
The lone heavyweight bout of UFC 256 will feature Ciryl Gane against Junior Dos Santos. These fighters are trending in different directions as Gane is on a six fight win streak while Dos Santos has lost his last three. Gane is a big favorite in this one and will carry the much higher cost in DFS contests. Those looking to roster these fighters on DraftKings must put up $9,200 for Gane and $7,000 for Dos Santos. On Fanduel they are priced at $22 and $8 respectively. This fight is scheduled for three rounds, but the oddsmakers have made the fight a -215 favorite to reach an end before going the full fifteen minutes.
Gane has a short resume having fought just six professional MMA fights. He is 6-0 in those fights with 2 wins by KO/TKO, 3 wins by submission and 1 win by decision. He is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC and has two submission finishes inside the octagon. Prior to his MMA career, Gane had fought professionally as a muay Thai fighter in France where he became national champion. He is now the 14th ranked heavyweight contender in the UFC and will make his way into the top ten with a victory over Dos Santos who is the 7th ranked contender in the division. Gane is equal in height to Dos Santos but will have a four inch reach advantage on Saturday. He is longer, faster and stronger than his opponent and will look to continue his meteoric rise in the UFC with a win over a well established fighter like Dos Santos.
Dos Santos is 21-8 overall with 15 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission and 5 wins by decision. He is on a three fight slide after facing some of the most fearsome men on the planet having lost to Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik in his last three trips to the octagon. Along with former heavyweight champion, Daniel Cormier, Dos Santos is the only other fighter to have defeated current champ, Stipe Miocic, over the past eight years. Dos Santos is a tough, hard hitting striker who has plenty of experience against the best heavyweights around. He will need all of this to get past Gane.
I expect this fight to start slowly. Dos Santos doesn’t want to contend with Gane’s power and Gane is a patient fighter that isn’t likely to go headhunting right away. Gane is an excellent kickboxer and he should be able to leverage his length by touching up Dos Santos from distance with his jab and kicks. He will force Dos Santos to bring the fight to him. Inevitably, Dos Santos must penetrate the distance and face the dangers that lurk for him in the pocket with Gane. Both fighters have knockout power and this fight could end at any moment. Dos Santos has only one submission over the course of his career and he isn’t likely to try to grapple with Gane. The reach difference also suggests he cannot fight at distance with Gane. Dos Santos will have no choice but to stand toe to toe with Gane and hope for the best.
I believe this fight will eventually turn into a brawl at some point. At that point, the fight shouldn’t persist for long. The winner of this fight is likely to get a nice conclusion bonus and that should result in a high fantasy score. Gane’s price is very high and he will need a first or second round finish to bring value to his salary, but this is very possible. Dos Santos has a chance here, however, and I believe the betting lines are skewed too far in favor of Gane. Still, Gane has better tools and should get the win here. Gane should play well in all formats and on all platforms. Given his super low salary, Dos Santos is also playable in GPP contests, but should be used sparingly as such a considerable underdog. I imagine this fight will start slowly, but reach it’s conclusion in the second round with Gane emerging as the victor.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 256 on December 12.
UFC 256: FIGHT #5, Gane vs Dos Santos
For Fight Study on UFC 256: FIGHT #4, Souza vs Holland, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 256: FIGHT #6, Pineda vs Swanson, click HERE.