Fight Study – December 12, 2020
UFC 256’s Main Event will feature a title fight in the flyweight division between challenger, Brandon Moreno, and current champion, Deveison Figueiredo. Both fighters are on winning streaks and will look to extend their streaks on Saturday. Figueiredo is the heavy favorite in this matchup and he carries the higher DFS salaries. He is available on DraftKings for $9,000 and on Fanduel for $23. Moreno is more affordably priced at $7,200 and $18 respectively. As the Main Event, this fight has been scheduled for five rounds, but current odds point to an earlier finish as this fight is a -235 favorite to end before reaching a decision.
Moreno is on a three fight win streak and is undefeated over his last five fights going 4-0-1 over that span. He is 18-5-1 overall with 3 wins by KO/TKO, 10 wins by submission and 5 wins by decision. Both Moreno and Figueiredo fought just three weeks ago, and Moreno scored a first round TKO victory over Brandon Royval in his most recent fight. Moreno is a skilled striker, but his bread and butter is his submission game having 10 wins via submission. Still, he is able to finish fighters on his feet and he has two wins by KO/TKO over his last five fights. Getting a finish against Figueiredo, however, will prove a very tall task indeed.
Figueiredo is 20-1 with 9 wins by KO/TKO, 8 wins by submission and 3 wins by decision. He has won five straight and successfully defended his title for the first time in his most recent fight where he submitted Alex Perez inside of two minutes in the first round. He is not only one of the strongest flyweights in the division, he is also one of the fastest and most skilled. He throws combinations at a rapid-fire pace and is able to secure submissions in a heartbeat. He is likely both the best grappler and the best striker in the division. At age 32 he looks to dominate the UFC’s flyweight division for the foreseeable future.
Although Figueiredo is a very skilled grappler, Moreno’s disadvantage in a stand up fight is much greater than on the ground. For this reason, Moreno’s best hope in this fight is to take this fight to the ground where a submission becomes a possibility. On their feet, Figueiredo is likely to run away with this fight and Moreno will do his best to make this a grappling contest. In a pure grappling affair, Figueiredo is still likely the superior fighter, but his edge will be reduced. Moreno’s grappling is slick and the chances of a win are much higher if he can take this fight to the mat.
Ultimately, wherever this fight takes place, Figueiredo is likely to have the upper hand. His speed while upright is overwhelming and his opponents inevitably find themselves in terrible shape during grappling exchanges due to the positional advantage his striking affords him with clean and simple takedowns. Moreno is one of several fighters atop this division who are behind Figueiredo in nearly every aspect of the game. Figueiredo is clearly the best of this division and he is the better play in DFS contests on Saturday. He plays well in both cash lineups and GPP contests on both platforms. I would recommend staying away from Moreno, but a few insurance lineups with him in 150-max contests is worth consideration.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 256 on December 12.
UFC 256: FIGHT #1, Moreno vs Figueiredo
For Fight Study on UFC 256: FIGHT #2, Oliveira vs Ferguson, click HERE.