Fight Study – November 21, 2020
Nicolas Dalby will face red-hot Daniel Rodriguez in a welterweight bout in Las Vegas on Saturday. Rodriguez is a big favorite with the oddsmakers and he will carry the much higher salary in DFS contests. He is priced at $9,100 on DraftKings and $20 on Fanduel. As the underdog, Dalby is priced at $7,100 and $9 respectively. This fight is a narrow favorite to finish before the final bell and is priced at -145 to finish inside the distance.
In his last fight, Jesse Ronson submitted Dalby in the second round of their fight in July of this year. That fight was overturned just days ago due to a failed drug test by Ronson. This was the second no contest in three fights for Dalby. He is 18-3-1 with 2 no contests over his career and he is 2-2-1 with one no contest in the UFC. In his 18 victories, Dalby has 6 wins by KO/TKO, 4 wins by decision and 8 wins by decision. He has yet to finish a UFC opponent. He made his UFC debut in 2015 and defeated Elizeu dos Santos in the process. However, after an impressive debut, he went 0-2-1 over his next three UFC fights. He fought his next five fights on the Cage Warriors circuit where he went 3-1 with one no contest. He returned to the octagon in September of 2019, winning in his return and getting submitted by Ronson in his next fight. He has been anything but consistent in the UFC.
Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been very consistent with nine straight victories coming into Saturday’s fight. He is 13-1 overall with 7 wins by KO/TKO, 4 wins by submission and 2 wins by decision. He is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC (all in 2020) with two finishes in the octagon. In his last UFC fight, he KO’d Dwight Grant at 2:24 of the first round. In 13 career wins, he has 11 finishes. He is a high volume striker with an average of 95.8 strikes thrown per round and he lands at rate of 46.1 significant strikes per round which is the highest of all fighters on Saturday. In his three UFC fights so far he is averaging 119.2 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). Current odds make him +110 to win inside the distance on Saturday.
Rodriguez’s confidence is at an all time high and he will come out Saturday looking to get his third UFC finish. He will attack any target Dalby gives him and although his power isn’t off the charts, his strikes are heavy and they accumulate quickly. Dalby will do his best to slow him down by initiating clinches and trying to bring this fight to the ground. Dalby is very effective when he can back his opponents against the fence. Rodriguez can hold his own in grappling exchanges, but he won’t have the same advantage there that he will have striking from the center of the octagon. It will be difficult for Dalby to effectively implement this strategy, however, as Rodriguez brings relentless pressure to his opponents.
Rodriguez is priced very high on both formats, but the heavy volume striking he brings to the octagon allows him to bring value at just about any price. Dalby will do anything he can to slow him down, but I don’t think he’ll be able to stand up to Rodriguez’s pressure. Given Rodriguez’s ability to land strikes at such a high pace he is fully capable of high scoring in a decision win, but I believe that Dalby will most likely succumb to his strikes before this fight reaches the final bell. I don’t see much of a chance for Dalby in a decision, and on their feet Rodriguez is sure to have a big advantage. Perhaps Dalby can find a submission attempt or two in this fight, but I don’t like his chances and will be looking to fade him on all formats and platforms. Rodriguez is one of my favorite GPP plays on Saturday and will be a top cash play as well.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 255 on November 21.
UFC 255: FIGHT #9, Dalby vs Rodriguez
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #8, Lipski vs Shevchenko, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #10, Gooden vs Jouban, click HERE.