Fight Study – November 21, 2020
In the first of two fights featuring a Shevchenko sister, Ariane Lipski will face Antonina Shevchenko in a flyweight fight on Saturday. Both fighters have UFC records of 2-2 and Shevchenko is the betting favorite. She is priced slightly more in DFS contests and can be rostered for $8,400 on DraftKings and for $16 on Fanduel. Lipski is priced at $7,800 and $12 respectively. This fight is scheduled for three rounds and current odds suggest this fight will go the distance at -265 to do so.
Lipski is 13-5 overall with 6 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission and 4 by decision. Since losing her first two fights in the UFC she has rebounded with consecutive wins over Luana Carolina and Isabela de Padua. Her last fight was against Carolina who she finished by knee bar in the first 88 seconds of the first round. She is the shorter fighter in this matchup by two inches but the two fighters are equal in reach. At age 26 she is 9 years younger than Shevchenko who turned 35 the day before the Saturday fight.
Antonina Shevchenko is the older sister of the flyweight champion, Valentina Shevchenko, who will defend her belt in UFC 255’s Co-Main Event of the evening. She is 8-2 overall with 2 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission and 5 by decision. She lost a unanimous decision to Katlyn Chookagian in her last fight in May of this year. In the UFC she has wins over Ji Yeon Kim and Lucie Pudilova. She is a Muay Thai fighter with a solid overall game, but is still working on her skills after returning to MMA fighting in 2017 following a 12 year hiatus. She will have her hands full with Lipski in what promises to be one of the more competitive fights of the evening.
These women are evenly matched and this fight figures to go the full fifteen minutes. Although both women have one finish apiece in the UFC, I don’t expect a KO/TKO in this fight. Lipski has the better KO/TKO record and has the better power of the two, but Shevchenko may be the more polished striker. On the ground, Lipski should have a slight advantage, but Shevchenko won’t be an easy submission. I believe the more time spent on the ground in this fight will favor Lipski and the more time spent striking will favor Shevchenko. This fight is very likely to be a mix of all disciplines here and no fighter has the clear edge on Saturday.
I make this fight to be one of the closest of any on Saturday. I believe the odds are too heavy in favor of Shevchenko and give Lipski an equal chance here. I also think Lipski has the higher ceiling of these two as she is the superior finisher and is priced better on both DFS formats. In GPP contests I would give Lipski higher exposure than Shevchenko and Lipski is the only fighter of the two I would consider putting into cash lineups. Lipski is not necessarily the better fighter, but I like her scoring potential more and at the cheaper price she make the better DFS play for contests on Saturday.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 255 on November 21.
UFC 255: FIGHT #8, Lipski vs Shevchenko
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #7, Wright vs Buckley, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 255: FIGHT #9, Dalby vs Rodriguez, click HERE.