Welcome to the MLB DFS League Championship Series (LCS) rundown & cheat sheet column for Tuesday, October 13, 2020.
Looking for help with building line-ups on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo for the 2020 MLB DFS Playoffs? We’ll be here each day covering our thoughts on the Main Slate (2+ games) on the best plays and picks for the day’s MLB Playoff DFS contests!
With just 2 game slates from here on in (aside from single game showdowns), we need to keep some of the basic small slate principles in mind:
- Make sure that you adjust “batters vs pitcher” settings in the Lineup Cruncher to allow for 2+ vs the default of 0
- It’s critical to use some ownership data (especially for you FC Pro members) to create groups of sub-20% owned players for lineup uniqueness in GPPs
- Generally we’re not going to have significantly one-sided games, so all-out team stacks are not often going to be the most profitable path to profit
- Limited options is going to cause us to do deeper dives into things like historical BvP, pitch type data and how starters have fared against their opponents the last couple years
With this said, let’s take a look at some of the key things and facts to know as you head into lineup construction for this two gamer.
UPDATE: With Kershaw being scratched here, that not only bumped the total in this game up a full run to 8.5, but also brings another value SP (Tony Gonsolin) to the table. I do like him a lot, but now the ATL offense is far more attractive in the same breath. I see a 5-6 inning, 4-5 K outlook for Gonsolin and now Anderson gets bumped up the ranks in my books given his elite K ceiling.
On FanDuel, they’ve really priced up Clayton Kershaw at his $10,000 mark compared to Ryan Yarbrough and Jose Urquidy at $7K and $7.7K respectively. Ian Anderson, Kershaw’s opponent, is at $9.4K (a fairly easy fade for me). I still think the play is Kershaw here and if you want to get some more value in your pitching slot instead, I’d go with Yarbrough. With their backs up against the wall here (in a sense), the Astros are going to have a short leash with Urquidy who hasn’t even gone past 5 IP in his last two starts. You can still build very compelling lineup(s) with Kershaw at the helm on FanDuel, with 3+ $3,500 bats with ease.
On DraftKings, we’re definitely locking in Kershaw as our SP1 here. After that, I’m all about Ryan Yarbrough for $7,400 as a SP2. Atlanta bats have a .217 wOBA against the Dodger lefty since 2016 (94 at bats) and a 27.7% K% in the matchup. Yarbrough hasn’t quite been as dominant from a K%, but does have a .265 wOBA track record against HOU and will have far more leash than Urquidy will given the importance of this one for HOU to get back into the series. He does a great job changing speeds and hitting spots, and should be able to get us 5-6 productive innings here. A Kershaw/Anderson SP tandem isn’t a bad idea for contrarian purposes on DK, either, as both could score 20+ points here.
The chalk is definitely going to be having extra exposure to TB/HOU given the run total discrepancy and seemingly wide gap in pitching talent between these 2 tilts. It’s not farfetched at all to see LAD/ATL with Kershaw and Ian Anderson pitching to a 3-4 run game overall, while Tampa and Houston could battle it out to a 8-10+ runs scored kind of game. This is particularly aided by the fact that both Urquidy and Yarbrough are below-average K% arms in how they work.
So, let’s take that into consideration and leverage more exposure to the contact-oriented game rather than the one that could easily feature 16+ Ks (combined) from each of the starting pitchers in that one.
Check out the full player pool below as you head into crunching mode for this slate!
$ Tier P C 1B 2B 3B SS OF High Clayton Kershaw (8.8k / 2.08) (10k / 3.71) ( / 2.08) Will Smith (4.2k / 7.83) (2.9k / 10.21) ( / 6.47) Max Muncy (4.6k / 10.05) (3.6k / 13.10) ( / 8.31) Jose Altuve (4.9k / 10.25) (3.5k / 13.36) ( / 8.47) Alex Bregman (4.8k / 10.49) (3.8k / 13.68) ( / 8.67) Corey Seager (4.9k / 10.78) (3.9k / 14.06) ( / 8.92) Mookie Betts (5.3k / 11.76) (4.3k / 15.34) ( / 9.73) Ian Anderson (8.3k / 15.39) (9.4k / 27.41) ( / 15.39) Travis d'Arnaud (4.4k / 8.41) (3.1k / 10.97) ( / 6.96) Freddie Freeman (5k / 10.10) (4k / 13.16) ( / 8.35) Justin Turner (4.6k / 9.31) (3k / 12.14) ( / 7.70) Randy Arozarena (4.7k / 10.50) (3.5k / 13.69) ( / 8.68) Ronald Acuna (5.1k / 10.77) (4.5k / 14.04) ( / 8.90) Cody Bellinger (4.5k / 8.33) (4.1k / 10.86) ( / 6.88) Medium Brandon Lowe (4.2k / 9.60) (3.3k / 12.52) ( / 7.94) Carlos Correa (4.4k / 8.67) (3.5k / 11.31) ( / 7.17) Austin Meadows (3.7k / 8.96) (3.3k / 11.69) ( / 7.41) Ozzie Albies (4.4k / 8.28) (3.8k / 10.79) ( / 6.84) Dansby Swanson (4k / 6.56) (3.4k / 8.55) ( / 5.42) A.J. Pollock (3.9k / 5.58) (3k / 7.28) ( / 4.61) Low Ryan Yarbrough (7.4k / 9.86) (7k / 17.57) ( / 9.86) Mike Zunino (3.6k / 0.32) (2.3k / 0.42) ( / 0.27) Ji-Man Choi (3.6k / 0.77) (2.4k / 1.00) ( / 0.64) Aledmys Diaz (3.4k / 4.03) (2.2k / 5.25) ( / 3.33) Manuel Margot (3.2k / 5.87) (2.6k / 7.65) ( / 4.85) Yulieski Gurriel (3.1k / 4.67) (2.7k / 6.09) ( / 3.86) Nick Markakis (3k / 3.44) (2.2k / 4.49) ( / 2.85)