DFS Analysis for Waterson vs Hill in Las Vegas (9/12/20)

KHAMA WORTHY (FD $15) – Worthy has been undervalued in every fight he has fought inside the octagon. Once again, he is undervalued against newcomer, Ottman Azaitar, on Saturday. Both fighters are on significant win streaks, but the quality of fighter that Worthy has bested is much higher. In his first two UFC fights, Worthy finished both Devonte Smith and Luis Peña. Azaitar has one fight in the UFC. In that fight he defeated Teemu Packalen of Finland. Packalen is not nearly at the same level of UFC competition as the fighters Worthy has beaten. Since 2017 Worthy is unbeaten with a record of 7-0 and five finishes in that span. To be fair, Azaitar is 12-0 with eleven finishes, but against a much lower level of competition. Until he defeats fighters on the level of Smith and Peña, he is still unproven.

Caveman’s advice: Worthy’s salary on Fanduel is not indicative of his scoring potential. In his two UFC fights to date he is averaging 112.3 FPPF against high level UFC fighters. This fight is not expected to go the distance and is currently a -275 favorite to end before the final bell. The winner of this fight should score well and Worthy is a proven winner against some of the best lightweights in the world. Additionally, he has a three inch advantage in reach and height, and I like him to outperform both his salary and his betting odds. He is a great play in both cash and GPP contest on Fanduel.

(At the time of this writing, Khama Worthy is -134 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.81 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

SIJARA EUBANKS (FD $10) – Five fights into her UFC career, Eubanks is 3-2 with impressive victories over Lauren Murphy, Roxanne Modafferi and Sarah Moras. Her opponent, Julia Avila, has yet to beat a fighter of Eubanks’ level with wins over Gina Mazany and Pannie Kianzad in her two UFC fights. Avila does have an impressive 8-1 professional record, but until she faces top UFC level fighters she doesn’t deserve to be such a big favorite against a fighter like Eubanks. Although Avila has a three inch height advantage, she has only a one inch advantage in reach. Eubanks is used to fighting taller fighters and will be ready to stand with Avila. When striking, Eubanks lands at a higher pace with an average of 4.95 strikes landed per minute compared to Avila’s 3.90 strikes landed per minute. Eubanks also takes opponents down at the better rate with an average of two takedowns per fifteen minutes. Avila has no takedowns to date.

Caveman’s advice: Avila is the favorite and I’m not trying to convince anyone that Eubanks is a guarantee. It is important to recognize that the betting lines are skewed and this fight is much closer than the odds would indicate. I like Eubanks for a decent chance at a decision win here. With a bargain salary of $10 she has the potential to bring value with any win and can make room for more expensive fighters in the same lineup. For this reason, even in a loss she may score enough to contribute to lineups considering the additional salary she leaves for those top plays.

(At the time of this writing, Sijara Eubanks is +235 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 41.52 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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