2020 Northern Trust: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2020 Northern Trust. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for the 2020 Northern Trust! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

Last Week’s Picks:

  • Paul Casey – T31
  • Harris English – T23
  • Sergio Garcia – T66
  • Doc Redman – T3
  • Kyle Stanley – MC

Last week saw Jim Herman pick up the win at the Wyndham Championship, coming from behind while firing a -7 on Sunday to win by one stroke over Billy Horschel, both of whom leapfrogged Si Woo Kim, who struggled on Sunday shooting even par.  This week the players tee it up at TPC Boston – which hosted the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship.  It will play slightly over 7300 yards as a Par 71 – so while distance will be important, I think the most important stat to monitor when setting player pools will be SG: APP and SG: TTG.  Because it is a Par 71 track, don’t sleep on players that have the ability to make eagles as well.  While they can be quite sporatic, I have a feeling that the winning GPP line-ups will have a handful of Eagles sprinkled in amongst their players with some opportunities out there as it isn’t a Par 70 course (which generally only have a couple).

The Best of the Best

  • Jason Day, $9,300

What a difference a month makes. He comes into this one playing outstanding, looking to have regained his elite game with 4 straight top 7 finishes, which have his stats looking good once again, with above average metrics across the board, highlighted by his 3rd ranking in SG: ATG, 15th in SG: TTG and 14th in SG: Total.  The price point doesn’t break the bank here and while I wouldn’t expect rock bottom ownership levels, I do think he’ll check in lower owned than he should be.  He’s my favourite option dollar for dollar this week, slightly edging out…

  • Collin Morikawa, $10,200

Morikawa comes into this one fresh off his win at the PGA Championship – and priced at a price point that doesn’t break the bank, it’s hard not to love him.  Don’t expect low ownership levels on him – but I have no problem eating some chalk here with Morikawa this week.  His game is elite, a great fit for the course, and I like his chances of competing in this week’s event.

The Next Tier

  • Scottie Scheffler, $8,100

He’s great off the tee (9th in SG: OTT), above average with his approach game (64th), and he comes into this one with three straight finishes in the top 22 (4th at PGA Championship, 15th at FedEx St. Jude and 22nd at The Memorial) – all of which are premier events on tour.  He had a strong start to the season and really struggled initially after the pandemic, but his game looks to be in great shape right now, and I love the spot he’s in for this weekend’s tournament.

  • Paul Casey, $8,500

Casey was priced up last week in the weaker field event – but with all the big boys back, he’s back down to the mid $8k range.  He’s an elite ball striker that ranks 6th on tour in SG: APP and 13th on tour in SG: OTT.  He had been putting dismal for most of the PGA season – but for the second straight week, he gained strokes putting and if that continues, I think we’ll continue to see him churn out rounds in the 60’s – something he has done in 8 straight rounds.  I don’t think he’ll be too popular this week with the masses, and love this spot for him at an affordable price.

Do Not Forget About…

  • Zach Johnson, $6,800

Johnson has had a pretty disappointing season compared to some of the seasons that he’s had on tour.  With that said, he played outstanding last week at the Wyndham, gaining strokes on approach at a great clip and he putted fantastic all week long.  His game really was in top form, and I like his chances of carrying things over this week to TPC Boston.  He’ll be a longshot to crack the top 10 again, but it is in the range of potential outcomes, and he has shown in the past that he has the ability to win some strong field events when he’s playing well, something that I think is the case for the first time all season for Johnson.  He’s my favourite option priced under $7k, slightly edging out Lanto Griffin ($6,700).

If you would like to see some more of my favourites for this week’s event, check out The Wyndham Championship Cheat Sheet!

If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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