The Daily MLB Rundown – DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – August 1, 2020 (8/1/20)

Welcome to the Daily MLB Rundown for DraftKings contests on Saturday, August 1, 2020

With the Cards and Brewers not going to play tonight, we have an eleven game slate of action for Saturday night’s slate with lots of high projected totals on the board, which puts us in in interesting spot when it comes to choosing stacks to use for your bats.  Let’s have a look at some ways to approach tonight’s slate!

Approach to Pitching

Tyler Glasnow ($9,300) is criminally under-priced and an option that I think will be very popular tonight as he goes up against Baltimore in a plus match-up.  Glasnow isn’t fully stretched out – but that and the fact that he is likely to be the chalk for the slate tonight are the only things working against him tonight.  I expect him to toss another 10-15 pitches than we saw from him in his debut start to the 2020 season, and I like an over-weight position on him tonight.  I really do think when healthy he’s one of the best arms in the game.

Jordan Lyles ($7,900) is an intriguing mid-priced arm as he goes up against the AAAA line-up that the Giants are rolling out everyday.  Lyles made strides a year ago, posting 9.3 K/9 in 141 innings, and while his first start saw him only go two innings, I expect him to be able to toss 4-5 innings today.  In a plus match-up against a line-up that shouldn’t give him too much trouble – the ceiling is limited, but I like the spot for Lyles a lot for an affordable price on Saturday.

If you are looking for a low owned flier with plenty of risk, but also with a fair amount of upside – Touki Toussaint ($7,300) against the Mets is an interesting option.  Toussaint is taking the spot left open in the rotation with the demotion of Folty – and Toussaint, while inconsistent, has shown the ability to miss bats, evidenced by his 6 punch-outs in 2+ innings in his only relief appearance of the season and over the course of his career, with over 10 K/9.  He struggles with control, but if he can throw strikes, he is a great high upside option that should be low owned today….just know that the potential for a bust is moderate.

Approach to Hitting

For hitting tonight, the same three teams lead the way in terms of projected totals with SD/COL leading the way in Coors, followed by the Yankees.  I like the spot for the Padres tonight more than the other two as I want to see more from Kyle Freeland before assuming he is back to his 2018 form, where he threw excellent for the Rockies.  As for Colorado and the Yankees, while they are in excellent spots, I think you have the chance to go stacking with a couple other teams for a fraction of the ownership that you’ll see COL and NYY bats have (I have included my favourite options from these three teams as a part of the cheat sheet below for your reference):

  • Braves vs. Michael Wacha

The Braves have as good of a line-up as any team in baseball, and anytime they check in outside the top 3 in projected runs, assuming they are facing an average at best arm – I love the spot for them.  That certainly is the case in the match-up against Wacha, who looked solid in his first start of the 2020 season, but is an arm that has been a shell of his former self for quite some time now.  In 126.2 innings a year ago, he allowed 1.89 HR/9, and the Braves have plenty of pop.  Wacha has been a reverse split pitcher for most of his career, including last season – but lefties still cleared the .340 wOBA mark, putting hitters from both sides of the dish in play for this one if you do decide to stack Braves.  The usual suspects are my favourite options here, including OF Ronald Acuna ($5,500), 2B Ozzie Albies ($5,300) and 1B Freddie Freeman ($5,600).  I expect lower ownership on OF Marcel Ozuna ($4,800) and 1B Matt Adams ($3,900) than the aforementioned trio, but I think they are worth including in your player pool as a part of Braves stacks.  Adams in particular as a replacement for Freeman is something that could pay off in spades if Adams has a big day as he would free up salary room and also should be lower owned than Freddie.

  • Rays vs. Wade LeBlanc

The Rays are a team that I expect to be at – or near the top of the league in terms of hitting against LHP when the season is all said and done, and projected for 5.34 runs, which checks in as the 6th highest for tonight’s slate – there’s plenty of upside here for a Rays stack.  An affordable bunch to load up on, going up against a sub-par arm like LeBlanc (2.08 HR/9 in 2019) and a rough first start – I love this spot for Tampa, who could slip under the radar in terms of ownership levels given some of the higher projected totals on the board.  I prefer the RH sticks here, led by OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,400), 3B Yandy Diaz ($4,200) and OF Jose Martinez ($4,700) – but you can also sprinkle in SS Willy Adames ($4,000), 1B/2B Mike Brosseau ($4,200) and even 2B/OF Brandon Lowe ($4,700) as part of your player pool for TB stacks.  Lowe could be an interesting twist here playing the reverse split, assuming he’s in the line-up.  He should get some swings against RHP, and should be lower owned than the other options.

Cheat Sheet

$ TierPC1B2B3BSSOF
High
Kenta Maeda
(9k / 10.01)
Anthony Rizzo
(5k / 13.22)
Jurickson Profar
(4.9k / 15.08)
Manny Machado
(5.2k / 16.75)
Fernando Tatis Jr.
(6.1k / 18.99)
Tommy Pham
(5.1k / 16.57)
Carlos Carrasco
(9.2k / 9.39)
Nolan Arenado
(5.5k / 17.41)
Trevor Story
(5.9k / 18.50)
Wil Myers
(4.8k / 13.90)
Cody Bellinger
(5.3k / 1.49)
Medium
Tyler Chatwood
(8.2k / 11.44)
Francisco Mejia
(4.6k / 8.24)
Jose Abreu
(4.2k / 12.13)
DJ LeMahieu
(4.2k / 13.44)
Yoan Moncada
(4.4k / 13.47)
Gleyber Torres
(4.4k / 13.27)
Ramon Laureano
(4.6k / 12.13)
Yasmani Grandal
(4.4k / 11.96)
Matt Chapman
(4.5k / 12.60)
Corey Seager
(4.1k / 11.51)
Max Kepler
(3.9k / 8.68)
Luis Robert
(3.9k / 11.45)
Eloy Jimenez
(4k / 9.71)
Low
Mike Zunino
(3.7k / 6.46)
Ryan McBroom
(2.3k / 6.21)
Nick Madrigal
(2.8k / 3.48)
Matt Kemp
(3.4k / 9.96)
Evan White
(3k / 6.18)
Michael Brantley
(2.9k / 1.01)

Good luck in your contests tonight!

 

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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