Welcome to the Daily MLB Rundown for FanDuel MLB DFS contests on Thursday, July 30, 2020.
In this column, we’ll be walking you through the top pitchers and hitters (including stacks) to target for the day’s slate (7/30/2020).
Core Pitchers to Target
Dinelson Lamet vs SF – $9,200 – It is probably going to be something that you will get sick of eventually, but there are just going to be some teams that every night we are going to attack from the pitching perspective. By that I mean, the Giants, Pirates, Marlins (maybe), and any other fringe bottom hitting team that also strikes out a lot. Right now, the Giants are going to be a team I continue to roster pitchers against. There is just nothing scary about a lineup that has Pablo Sandoval, Wilmer Flores, and Alex Dickerson in the 2-4 slots in your batting order. They are also a team that struggled mightily against right-handed pitching last year – and that was a team with Buster Posey and Brandon Belt active. Dinelson Lamet has one start under his belt this season in which he struckout eight batters in just five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks. Lamet ended 2019 strong after returning from Tommy John surgery and with his first performance plus a soft matchup with the Giants in a pitcher park, Lamet tops my pitching chart today.
Dylan Bundy vs SEA, $8,200 – I’ll start by saying I expect Bundy to be chalk tonight due to his price and his matchup. Bundy was a once touted prospect who fizzled out with the Orioles due to some inconsistency and location issues – and the inability to not give up the long ball (96 between 2017-2019). The Orioles traded Bundy to the Angels in the winter and Bundy appeared to be a nice bounce-back candidate. We are very obviously working with the smallest of samples right now, but Bundy looked great in his first Angels start, allowing just one earned and going 6.2 innings, which is one of the longer starts out of any starter this season. Bundy also struck out seven. Even in Bundy’s struggles with the Orioles he was still a pitcher who had a high ceiling due to his stuff, the problem was just locating it. This likely isn’t a problem that will go away and he is susceptible to the long ball, but at $8,200 and against the Mariners, this is a guy that will be highly owned tonight. I do label this a core play but with the note that if this ownership creeps into the 30% range, there is an argument for an ownership fade.
GPP Pitcher to Target
Brady Singer vs DET, $7,200 – Singer had a strong debut against the Indians, striking out seven over five innings and allowing just two runs on three hits. The command was shaky for Singer which is a concern, but he did K the Indians lineup at a high rate. Singer takes on the Tigers today who have a much higher swing and miss rate than the Indians do. There is a risk here, but with low projected ownership and a positive matchup, I have no issues trying to capture more strikeout lightning in a bottle.
Core Stacks to Target
Sometimes day-to-day the process can change a little, but the names remain the same. The Yankees have a huge 6.25 projected run total tonight facing LHH John Means. Means’ has actually handled left handed hitters well in his career, holding them to a .196 batting average, however, most of the damage against him has come from the right side, where hitters are hitting over .250 where he has allowed a home run every 23rd at-bat. Means is also fresh off the injured list as he has been dealing with some arm issues. I am not sure how deep Means even gets in this game and seeing someone have “arm fatigue” towards the end of summer training isn’t exactly promising for his outlook against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. Loading up on Yankees hitters tonight will be popular, but I don’t think it is avoidable right now. Gleyber Torres ($3,100) and Luke Voit ($2,800) will save you the most money, but Aaron Judge ($4,100) and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800) hold priority for me.
The Mets are another team I will be targeting tonight as they face Martin Perez and the Red Sox. Perez is just a soft thrower who isn’t going to strike you out a lot – Perez also has had an ERA over five in his last two seasons. In Perez’s first start of the year, he gave up four earned over five innings against Baltimore and over his career he has let right-handed hitters hit .298 against him – and that is in a sample over 2,800 at-bats. Yoenis Cespedes is still just $2,600, Amed Rosario is just $2,500, and JD Davis $2,400. Those are incredibly low prices for the matchup and if you need any salary saving at all they are your guys to target. Pete Alonso is also obviously very much in play at $3,900 despite his slower start to the season.
GPP Stack to Target
One of my favorite things to do for tournaments in MLB is to attack a team who is in a tougher matchup on paper but historically have a great offense. Tonight that perfectly describes the Minnesota Twins. Twins players are typically some of the highest owned slate to slate because of their home run ceiling and high run totals, but on nights like tonight where they face a tougher pitcher or one-off of a great start – Shane Beiber – we are going to get hitters at much lower ownership. The highest projected Twins ownership right now is Nelson Cruz at 8% and though this is subject to change, with the Yankees, Angels, and likely Mets set up to be higher owned, you can get a Twins team that can go off at any point for little to no ownership across the field. Of course, there is risk here as the trade-off is facing a tougher pitcher but despite Beiber looking strong in his season debut striking out 14, it was still against the Royals. Beiber faced this Twins team in a start in late September last season where the Twins tagged him for four earned on 11 hits. A lot has changed between then and now, but it’s not like we are talking about an elite (yet) pitcher.
Check out our cheatsheet below for the full list of players in our player pool today
$ Tier P C1B 2B 3B SS OF High Shane Bieber (10.7k / 28.74) Peter Alonso (3.9k / 17.50) DJ LeMahieu (3.3k / 19.18) Anthony Rendon (4k / 18.73) Mike Trout (4.5k / 2.11) Dinelson Lamet (9.2k / 34.90) Ketel Marte (3.3k / 13.23) Justin Turner (3.5k / 18.13) Mookie Betts (4.2k / 20.43) Aaron Judge (4.1k / 22.42) Giancarlo Stanton (3.8k / 23.16) Medium Dylan Bundy (8.2k / 30.06) David Fletcher (3k / 12.35) Josh Donaldson (3k / 11.36) Gleyber Torres (3.1k / 20.42) Wil Myers (3.2k / 8.91) Jeff McNeil (2.9k / 14.97) Low Brady Singer (7.2k / 17.09) Luke Voit (2.8k / 13.77) Gio Urshela (2.6k / 10.58) Adalberto Mondesi (2.6k / 8.05) Justin Upton (2.7k / 12.55) Albert Pujols (2.6k / 10.07) Amed Rosario (2.5k / 14.00) Yoenis Cespedes (2.6k / 9.83) J.D. Davis (2.4k / 11.86)