The Daily MLB Rundown – DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – July 30, 2020 (7/30/20)

Welcome to the Daily MLB Rundown for DraftKings contests on Thursday, July 30, 2020

Thursday’s eight game slate is a very interesting one, with no shortage of options to consider when building line-ups.  We have a few fantasy aces taking the ball in fairly difficult match-ups, some high K upside options with some question marks surrounding how long they will be used for and their consistency – and on the hitting side of things, outside of the Yankees and Angels, I am expecting ownership levels to be fairly spread out.  Let’s look at some ways to approach line-up construction as we roll along with early MLB action!

Approach to Pitching

Two mid-priced arms, both of whom are in great spots coming off strong swing and miss stuff in their 2020 debuts are likely to be pretty popular options, Dylan Bundy ($8,200) and Dinelson Lamet ($9,200) – who go up against Seattle and San Fran, respectively.  Bundy is the one that I think will be higher owned between the two, largely due to the fact that he is priced $1k cheaper than Lamet – but I prefer the spot for Lamet tonight between the two.  He has been an electric swing and miss arm, racking up punch-outs with ease, sitting at 11.94 K/9 over a span of just under 200 MLB innings spanning 2+ seasons.  In a match-up with what is likely the worst offence in baseball – it shouldn’t be shocking to see the Giants projected for a meagre 3.3 runs tonight, and I have no problem thinking that you should be significantly over-weight the field when it comes to including Lamet in your builds for 55-65% exposure here.  He punched out 8 over 5 strong innings against Arizona in his 2020 debuit.

Another arm that intrigues me tonight is Max Fried ($8,900).  Unlike the two options above, he shouldn’t be too popular as he goes up against a potent TB squad that should have the line-up loaded with righties against the southpaw.  Fried went 5 solid innings against the Mets in his first start and should be able to go a little deeper in this one.  Over 230 career innings, the 26 year old has done a good job of missing bats (9.3 K/9) – and the tough match-up should help keep his ownership levels around 10% tonight.  Fried’s stuff plays against even the best hitters in the game when he is on – and he really made a lot of strides last year with his control, slashing his BB/9 to 2.55, down nearly 3 per 9.  I like him to build on that this season – and have no problem going against the grain with some exposure to him tonight.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t touch on Shane Bieber ($9,800) who was brilliant in his first start of the season, fanning 14 over 6 innings against the Royals last week.  Even with a very tough match-up against Minny, I like mixing in Bieber for ~20% of line-ups….he’s a good enough arm to have a good shot at shutting down the best line-ups in the game, and you have a shot to get him with pretty low ownership levels tonight given the match-up.

Approach to Hitting

For hitting tonight, outside the obvious choice of the Yankees and Angels (who I have included my favourite options below in the Cheat Sheet for you) – there are a couple of stacks that really intrigue me:

  • Mets vs. Martin Perez

Perez looked dismal in his first start to the season, and the Mets have plenty of quality RH sticks that make it a pretty good chance that Perez will have another poor outing.  Projected for 5.3 runs and with a plus match-up, I wouldn’t expect low ownership levels here – but I actually like the Mets the most of any stacks for tonight’s action.  The likes of SS Amed Rosario ($4,700), 1B Pete Alonso ($5,100), 3B/OF JD Davis ($3,700) and OF Yoenis Cespedes ($3,800) is a great four man stack that would give you 4 pieces in the top 6 of the Mets order….and would do it in a way that doesn’t break the bank from a salary standpoint either.  If you are looking for a 5th option, even though he’s a lefty stick, OF Michael Conforto ($4,700) is a great option.  I wouldn’t worry too much about Perez’s success against lefties…the odds are good he won’t be around past the 5th inning in this one, which should give Conforto a shot or two against a righty in the Sox’s pen.  Finally, C Wilson Ramos ($3,100) is a great punt with upside at a weak C position.

  • Dodgers vs. Robbie Ray

Ray looked excellent in his first start of the season, and truly does have elite swing and miss stuff.  At the same time, you have a shot to go stacking Dodgers in a spot where they will be low-moderately owned – something that has plenty of upside.  Ray struggles to keep his pitch count down due to his ability to miss bats in combination with his control issues – which leads me to believe against a disciplined Dodgers squad, he won’t be around deep into this game.  The Dodgers are projected for 4.8 runs in this one, which isn’t a low total – but shows that the possibility is there for them to be one of the higher scoring teams on the slate….something that I’m always willing to bet on, they have no shortage of quality bats, boasting arguably the best line-up in the game.  You could likely go overweight LAD with 12-18% expsoure in your stacks to the key cogs in their line-up that include a couple out of high spends like OF Mookie Betts ($5,600), 3B Justin Turner ($5,200), and OF Cody Bellinger ($5,300) in combination with a couple of value plays like OF Chris Taylor ($3,400), OF AJ Pollock ($3,300), and 2B/OF Kike Hernandez ($3,100).

Cheat Sheet

$ TierPC1B2B3BSSOF
High
J.A. Happ
(10.4k / 13.18)
Gary Sanchez
(4.9k / 9.83)
Gleyber Torres
(5.1k / 15.66)
Anthony Rendon
(5.4k / 14.37)
Fernando Tatis Jr.
(5.2k / 11.32)
Mike Trout
(6.1k / 1.62)
Giancarlo Stanton
(5.5k / 17.77)
J.D. Martinez
(5.1k / 11.64)
Medium
Ross Stripling
(8.4k / 10.86)
Wilson Ramos
(3.1k / 4.75)
Luke Voit
(4.2k / 10.56)
Whit Merrifield
(4.1k / 11.74)
DJ LeMahieu
(4.4k / 14.71)
Francisco Lindor
(4.2k / 9.51)
Aaron Judge
(4.9k / 17.19)
Corey Seager
(4.3k / 7.91)
Aaron Hicks
(4.7k / 12.21)
Austin Hays
(4.2k / 8.06)
Low
Salvador Perez
(2.6k / 8.72)
Ryan O'Hearn
(2k / 6.82)
Jose Peraza
(2.3k / 6.08)
David Fletcher
(3.2k / 9.47)
Jorge Soler
(3.6k / 11.58)
Justin Upton
(3.6k / 9.63)
Alex Gordon
(2.8k / 6.27)

Good luck in your contests tonight!

 

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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