2020 3M Open: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2020 3M Open. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for the 2020 3M Open! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

This week at The 3M Open, a relatively weak field will tee it up at TPC Twin Cities, which checks in somewhere in the 7400-7500 yard range and a Par 71.  We really do have a top heavy field here, which will make line-up construction interesting because I think most people will find that the middle tier golfers aren’t the same quality that you are used to seeing.  As such, I expect a lot of line-ups to take the barbelled approach, paying up at the top for some of the elite options, mixing in some value plays to help from a salary relief standpoint.

For the course this week, I’m looking for great ball strikers here – it is a course that has a fair bit of distance for a Par 71 track, and while I wouldn’t say you have to be a bomber here to succeed, I am liking players that gain strokes off the tee and with their approach shots when it comes to metrics that I prefer to weigh in to my decision making.

 

Let’s have a look at four options that I like along with a bit of a dart throw – `and some rationale for why I think you should include them in your player pool:

Last Week’s Picks:

  • Patrick Cantlay – T32
  • Daniel Berger – MC
  • Billy Horschel – T13
  • Adam Hadwin – T54
  • Max Homa – MC

I felt like a genius for precisely one round – with Homa sitting T3 after the first round of action.  A disastrous second day for him, and an epic meltdown on the scorecard for Berger – ending bogey, double to miss the cut on day 2 left me pretty under-whelmed last weekend at The Memorial.  Let’s dive in and look at some of my favourite options on the board this week!  I had Rahm on the Cheat Sheet – but before I go patting myself on the back, he was 27.8% owned in last weeks $200 single entry…so clearly I wasn’t onto something unique there!

The Best of the Best

  • Tony Finau – $10,900

Finau looked destined to pick up the title at The Memorial before firing a +6 in brutal Sunday conditions, pushing him down the leaderboard.  I’ve been saying for a few weeks now that Finau had been underpriced, and given his showing last weekend and the weak field here at TPC Twin Cities, it shouldn’t be shocking to see him at almost $11k.  I was tempted to write up both Finau and DJ – but that would have been a waste of your time (for the record, I think it’s smart to get significant exposure to both of them and Fitzpatrick….) but if you are asking for my favourite of the bunch when factoring in where I projected ownership, Finau is my choice this weekend.  I think he shakes off Sunday’s disaster for a bounce back effort this weekend.

  • Erik Van Rooyen – $8,800

Van Rooyen has played many-a-round at TPC Twin Cities – and I’ll cut narrative street there.  That certainly helps…though how do you quantify it?  I don’t think you can.  I wouldn’t pay too much attention to something like that in isolation – but when you like the golfer, and the field is weak….and the course seems to suit his game – sign me up.  Van Rooyen is an elite ball striker (you’ll notice a common theme here across all picks), who ranks 22nd on tour in SG: Tee to Green.  With him, it’s just a question of if he can make some putts.  He should be able to hang here with his distance and accuracy with his irons on approaches, and although I think he’s over-priced, that should help keep his ownership levels somewhat in check.

The Next Tier

  • Max Homa – $8,000

Homa came out of the gates blazing last weekend, sitting in a T3 after Thursday’s opening round at The Memorial…only to see things come crashing down on Friday, missing the cut in the end.  He’s shown glimpses since the pandemic of his form that we saw, which was outstanding early on in the PGA season, and I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets his game back.  He ranks in the top 40 in both SG: OTT, and SG: Approach…so to put it simply – in a weak field event, he is one of the more talented players competing.  As such, at $8k – I like the price point a lot for one of the better golfers in the field.

  • Chesson Hadley – $6,900

Much like Homa, Hadley is another option that strikes the ball really well – but unlike Homa, he comes into this one with strong form, making 3 of 4 cuts since the pandemic.  His short game is below average – and he isn’t a player that I like in regular or strong field events, but in an event as weak as this one, his short game is actually ‘fine’.  He has the distance and consistency with his irons to handle the length here, and I love the price point on him.

Do Not Forget About…

  • Derek Ernst – $6,300

I didn’t put Ernst on the Cheat Sheet in the end – but I wanted to mix things up here with someone not included on it.  Ernst has been playing on the KFT for the vast majority of the season – and is one of the elite ball strikers (9th on the KFT).  Given the low quality of this week’s field, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him keep his strong recent performance rolling into this weekend’s 3M Open.  He has three straight top 12 finishes on the KFT – and if you are looking for a punt with a fair bit of upside – he’s a great option if you can stomach the risk.

If you would like to see some more of my favourites for this week’s event, check out The PGA Cheat Sheet for The 3M Open!

If you have any questions at all, you can find me on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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