DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 – July 19, 2020 (7/19/20)
Kevin Harvick – DK: $11,300 | FD: $14,500 – Starting 5th
Despite being the highest priced driver this weekend, I am not one to try to not recommend someone that I view as the very best play of the slate. Harvick is one of the hottest on the circuit right now, finishing third, fourth, first, and second in his last four races. With the recent form out of the way we can now move on to what makes this a better play and that is the track history Harvick has here at Texas. This is a track Harvick is very familiar with as he has run 34 races here since 2001, but we are only going to focus on the last twelve that he has run as a member of Stewart-Haas Racing. Over those twelve races, Harvick has three victories, three-second place finishes, a third, and a fourth. With his worst finish being 10th back in 2016. That’s right, Harvick has finished this race in the top ten in eleven straight races, with eight of them being top-fives. On top of this, his last run at this track in November of 2019 turned in not only a victory, but 119 laps led. In 2018 he led 177 laps, and then 87, 38, and 77 the three races prior to that. Harvick grades out as the highest-rated driver on this track by a landslide and barring any technical issues, Harvick is a staple in cash games and tournaments.
Daniel Suarez – DK: $6,400 | FD: $4,500 – Starting 37th [Also a note on Cole Custer]
I’ll be the first to admit that this suggestion feels a bit dirty as Suarez typically isn’t a guy we target in DFS but there are some interesting tidbits that make Suarez a sneaky good play this week. First off, we can start at price – not only the low price on DraftKings but the absolutely bottom tier price on FanDuel. We do need to approach the value on FanDuel a bit differently, but this price is very tempting as it makes rostering dominators besides Harvick possible. In fact, with this price, you can roster three top tier drivers if you wish. Flexibility is always something we want to take advantage of. The next note here is Suarez has actually driven well at this track. Back in the days of qualifying, Suarez qualified seventh and fourth in his two Texas races in 2019. Suarez ended up finishing both of those races in third place with laps led in both (9 and 25). The Cole Custer note comes in here. Suarez ran these races in the #41 car, which is now the car driven by Cole Custer, while Suarez is now in the #96 car as a member of Joe Gibbs racing. Suarez has struggled a bit in this race, though he has finished his last ten races with positive place differential, of course, this is easier when you are starting near the very back of the pact every race. We can try to catch lightning in a bottle here with his track success, but note the variables above. I still like Suarez a lot for tournaments as I believe he will be low owned.
In the case of Cole Custer, he is a guy we should absolutely be going to the well again on as he has returned extreme value in his last two races with a fifth-place finish (65 fantasy points) and a first-place finish last week (78 fantasy points). The ownership here is likely to increase a ton though his price also is increasing to $7,400.
$ Tier D High Kevin Harvick (11.3k / 61.61) (14.5k / 61.61) Denny Hamlin (10.8k / 56.77) (13.3k / 56.77) Chase Elliott (10k / 52.89) (12k / 52.89) Joey Logano (9.5k / 54.89) (11.5k / 54.89) Medium Jimmie Johnson (9k / 56.13) (8.8k / 56.13) Erik Jones (8.6k / 55.25) (10k / 55.25) Clint Bowyer (7.7k / 36.01) (9.7k / 36.01) Cole Custer (7.4k / 28.81) (8.2k / 28.81) Low Michael McDowell (6.6k / 23.72) (5.5k / 23.72) Daniel Suarez (6.4k / 36.00) (4.5k / 36.00) John Hunter Nemechek (6k / 22.12) (6k / 22.12)