The UFC is Back on ESPN for Overeem vs Harris (5/16/20)
The UFC offers another short turnaround between events for fights in Jacksonville. With the withdrawal of Mike Davis from the card, the UFC has selected TITAN FC bantamweight champ, Irwin Rivera to fill in on short notice. He will fight Giga Chikadze at featherweight on Saturday. Chikadze is a big favorite for this one and at $7,000 in salary, he will be used a great deal in DFS contests. Instead of dwelling on the obvious value for this one, I have chosen to focus on two other fighters whose value on Saturday makes them good bargains for DFS contests on DraftKings.
ANTHONY HERNANDEZ (DK $8,000) – Hernandez is priced lower than his opponent, Kevin Holland, but will be favorite with the oddsmakers. Hernandez is 7-1 as a professional with one no contest ruling for his fight against Jordan Wright. Hernandez won that fight in 40 seconds by KO but the win was later overturned when he tested positive for marijuana. He has one loss to date. He has six finishes in his seven victories with five wins coming by submission. He fights Holland who has six wins by submission as well as two losses (out of five total losses) also by submission. Hernandez has five first round finishes along with his overturned first round KO of Wright.
Caveman’s advice: Anytime a fighter is favored with a below average salary, they will show up on the radar for value. In addition, Hernandez has a finishing rate of 75%. He is fighting an opponent with strong submission skills, so the threat of being finished will be there, but his potential to finish Holland (with 40% of his losses coming by submission) is good. Give Hernandez 30-40% exposure in multi-entry contests on Saturday due to his low cost and high ceiling.
(At the time of this writing, Anthony Hernandez is -113 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.63 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
DAN IGE (DK $7,700) – Ige is a great value despite being the underdog in this one against Edson Barboza. Barboza is coming off of a five fight stretch where he is 1-4 (although those losses were to top opponents including lightweight champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov). Barboza has a 4″ height advantage and 4″ reach advantage. However, Barboza is fighting at featherweight in this one and cutting weight for this one could not have been easy for him. Ige has great submission skills and won’t have to contend with the much taller Barboza strictly on his feet. Ige is on a five fight win streak with a first round KO and a first round submission in that span. In that same span he scored 113+ fantasy points in two fights and scored 99 fantasy points in another.
Caveman’s advice: When looking for value, it may require riding an underdog with big upside. Dan Ige presents this opportunity and Barboza’s weight cut may open the door for Ige to continue his win streak. Be cautious in this one, but consider giving Ige 25-40% exposure for multi-entry contests on Saturday. He has demonstrated his ability to score and is trending much better than Barboza who is trying his luck in a new weight class.
(At the time of this writing, Dan Ige is +111 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.38 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week, good luck with your lineups!