The UFC Shifts to Wednesday for Fight Night: Smith vs Teixeira (5/13/20)
The latest news for UFC Fight Night is the cancellation of the Vettori/Roberson fight. It seems that after failing to make weight, Karl Roberson ended up in the hospital due to complications from trying to cut weight. In honor of this, today’s insights will focus on two fighters with the value to make the cut and one fighter whose value just doesn’t make it.
MAKING THE CUT
DREW DOBER (DK $8,300) – Dober is 5-1 over his last six fights with two first round KO’s in his last two. In that span, he eclipsed the centrury mark in four of his five victories. He comes into this fight with Alexander Hernandez as the favorite and has the better odds to finish of the two. This fight is favored to go the distance but both of these fighters have won the majority of their fights before the final bell. Dober is priced just $100 over average on Wednesday.
Caveman’s advice: Value, simply put, is points per dollar. The potential for Drew Dober in this fight is very high for his just above average salary. Though both sides of this one are high on value, Dober’s is higher for both his better odds to win and his better odds to finish with an early conclusion bonus. At his reasonable salary, Dober is worthy of a good deal of lineups in multi-entry DFS contests and will make a moderately good play in cash contests as well. Give him up to 40-50% exposure in multi-entry contests on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Drew Dober is -121 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
MICHAEL JOHNSON (DK $8,000) – In the matchup of the fighters closest in salary, both Michael Johnson and Thiago Moises are 2-2 over their last four fights. He is the smallest of favorites at -113 to win, compared to Moises at -111. Despite being a very small favorite, Johnson has a much better average than his opponent at 55.6 FPPF, 16.6 points better than Moises. The biggest concern with Johnson is that he may be a bit over the hill. At age 35, he is more than nine years older than his opponent. Still, his experience speaks volumes with victories over the likes of Dustin Poirier, Edson Barboza and Tony Ferguson.
Caveman’s advice: Johnson should be used with caution as a small favorite. Still, at his salary he has enough upside to be used in DFS contests on Saturday. He has a very good chance at winning this one and in victory should score enough to bring value at a below average price. Use him in as much as 20-30% of lineups in multi-entry contests.
(At the time of this writing, Michael Johnson is -113 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 56.04 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
DOESN’T MAKE THE CUT
HUNTER AZURE (DK $9,100) – Azure is a significant favorite for this fight, but good odds don’t always equate to high fantasy scoring. He is undefeated with an 8-0 record, but four of his last five fights were won by decision. Consistent DFS scoring requires those early conclusion bonuses that Azure hasn’t been scoring since working his way up to higher levels of competition. This will be only his second trip to the octagon outside of Dana White’s Contender Series and he has yet to finish a UFC level opponent. His opponent, Brian Kelleher, has much more experience against UFC competition and is 4-3 in the octagon.
Caveman’s advice: I don’t like the value of a fighter with minimal UFC experience at the second highest price overall, especially considering his low finishing rate. I would prefer to spend down and use Anthony Smith who has a much higher ceiling. His does have a high likelihood of victory, though, and should make a solid cash play for DFS contests on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Hunter Azure is -171 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.52 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!